I agree with your assessment of Powell's move and how it might be received in the short-term. However, over the next few months, it might also be seen as a pretty bad policy mistake. The reason being is as follows: what if inflation were already going to subside because it was all about undersupply all along (due to supply chain problems and lack of foreign competition during Covid)? In that scenario, the tapering would be an unnecessary tightening that could cause trouble in the credit markets. After all, a whole lot of Americans are still out of work post-Covid and many lost benefits 6 weeks ago. If their spending habits dramatically change to the negative (not because of empty shelves but because they have no money), then the tapering will only make it harder for banks to lend to folks versus owning higher interest paying Treasuries.
Also, today's market generating information is telling us something. The 10Y yield is down 6bp from 1.60% to 1.54%. Why would that happen after a tightening event (i.e. tapering announcement)? Bond market is NOT forecasting inflation and it's fueling the mega tech stocks because they are long-duration bond-like proxies.
I learn and earn with you... cannot ask for more Tic, bless you
I agree with your assessment of Powell's move and how it might be received in the short-term. However, over the next few months, it might also be seen as a pretty bad policy mistake. The reason being is as follows: what if inflation were already going to subside because it was all about undersupply all along (due to supply chain problems and lack of foreign competition during Covid)? In that scenario, the tapering would be an unnecessary tightening that could cause trouble in the credit markets. After all, a whole lot of Americans are still out of work post-Covid and many lost benefits 6 weeks ago. If their spending habits dramatically change to the negative (not because of empty shelves but because they have no money), then the tapering will only make it harder for banks to lend to folks versus owning higher interest paying Treasuries.
Agreed. My assessment is 2-3 months as well.
Also, today's market generating information is telling us something. The 10Y yield is down 6bp from 1.60% to 1.54%. Why would that happen after a tightening event (i.e. tapering announcement)? Bond market is NOT forecasting inflation and it's fueling the mega tech stocks because they are long-duration bond-like proxies.
You are a wizard. Keep it up Tic!
Than you Sir. How you can be so accurate? No cent more or less from Tic’s level. Amazing job.
Thank you Tic.
How do you pick targets when they are above ATH?
thanks, Tic!
Thank you
Thank you
Thanks so very much Tic..great learning!
Thanks Tic, what your thoughts on SQ earning ?
Thanks Tic
AS always, amazing work Tic.
Nice play FSR, conference call was great, they going to build a cool, affordable EV, winners.
Fantastic
Great write up TicToc