Daily Plan 2145.3

11/4/21

Traders:

With the FOMC now behind us, here are my levels and plan for tomorrow, 11/4. I already emailed the wrap up from yesterday so those who have not read it can review it now. We will also not be reviewing the “Market Generated Information” today as we carved out new value area driven by FOMC Price Discovery.

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A) Daily Plan 11/4/21:

• 4622 was a key level for today. This level capped rallies all day. After perceived dovish FOMC notes, the level broke, went up 10 points, came down for a very brief retest and then S&P500 flew, trading as high as 4657 at one point. This level was provided in my Twitter pre open: Tic Toc 4622

  

  Resistance turns to Support at 4622

• My 4657 order flow provided some resistance to the steamy rally post FOMC for about 10 points. Tic Toc 4657 Infact this turned to be the High of the Day (HOD).

  Before I list down my scenarios for tomorrow, here is my read of the FOMC and the context:

• Substantial Further Progress is dead. This phrase will likely not be heard again now that the taper has begun.

• I thought Powell was very confident the inflation will die out. And I think that is indeed going to be the case 6-8 months out. And this is the reason market just took off after the FOMC minutes because rate increases are no-where near the horizon. So after buying 10 trillion in assets, now they want to reduce it by 15 billion a month. Big deal?!

• Now if this story gains traction, I expect stocks to go higher from here at 4650.

  Having laid this context, here are my 2 price scenarios for tomorrow:

  • An Open or Bid above 4622-4626: This is a bullish scenario with a re-test of 4657 possible followed by a rally to 4703. Now 4650.

  • I will be surprised if we open or offered below 4622 tomorrow, however in that instance , a test of 4590-4600 is likely.

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  B) Summary:

  • Market perceives the FOMC as dovish

  • Strong volume to break out of order flow level 4622

  • Going in expectation for rest of the week is 4622-4626 should support any declines, in line with a target of 4700+

  • An open or offers below 4622 will be bearish case, targeting recent lows at 4590-4600.

• In addition to this, here are a few EPS plays I was watching and as of this publication, here is how each one of them faring:

  • FSR: Given yesterday’s wrap up at 17, now trading ~ 19 bucks (11/2 Recap)

  • QCOM: 135, now trading 145 post market close

  • ROKU: I have been bear on this stock since 320 handles, my longer term target is 265. This stock just crumbled after earnings now trading as low as 280 dollar down 35 handles after earnings. ROKU 265

  Hope you enjoyed my work. Feel free to share, comment and like. Have a great afternoon!

  ~ Tic Toc 🍀

  Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. You  may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. Reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms.