Hey guys - Before the open today , I had a slightly bullish view due to the overnight conditions in related markets, like the Dollar index. AT the open however , I sensed the market opening was weak as soon as we opened, and I expected a test of at least 3890. I was looking for support to come in at 3890- that did not happen and per Scenario 1, we sold off to 3850 target. Spent rest of the day going nowhere from there and now closed around 3860 area.
More SPX / SPX option trade gold: "easier to react after event than have a position before it." Even options that expire at session end have a time value & intrinsic value component; after the events - FOMC St & subsequent conf - the time value component of option premium crushes b/c the unknown is known, I wait for the crush then take a position based on market reaction. I rarely trade options b/f earnings / market events for same reason. 2019 spent year watching Tic trade & working on new trade systems like post earnings option trades on big option traders AAPL, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA ,etc. There are often spectacular profits to be made trading the reaction with very short term options, but not if you buy before the time-value component of an option's premium is crushed.
frustrating with abnb (down), amd (up) and then the bullish comments on spx yesterday when we fell another half percent. You're certain to mention the winners always, but I wish you'd touch on the losers...
Tic bro how do you go from saying 4050/4100 to not saying those levels at all in this read, also no thought on $DXY , $TLT ? The weekly/ monthly setups look unreal for reversal and to give this market more legs higher, I see the 3770 level on the hourly but tic what about NAS here I see it way extended compared to emini I just don’t see how or why you’re expected below 3830 now... also $AAPL held your 150 entire week and $TSLA held 218 for multiple sessions now...
dxy still hovering around 112... thats good
Excellence in levels and accuracy. cheers
almost 3770 ;)
My takeaway. “We’ve raised 375 bps and inflation hasn’t budged” Means SIGNIFICANT hikes will be on tap Things will start breaking in 2023
I love when Tic is this quiet...
My guess Fed will do .5
Anyone here from tic
Todays open is trash
More SPX / SPX option trade gold: "easier to react after event than have a position before it." Even options that expire at session end have a time value & intrinsic value component; after the events - FOMC St & subsequent conf - the time value component of option premium crushes b/c the unknown is known, I wait for the crush then take a position based on market reaction. I rarely trade options b/f earnings / market events for same reason. 2019 spent year watching Tic trade & working on new trade systems like post earnings option trades on big option traders AAPL, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA ,etc. There are often spectacular profits to be made trading the reaction with very short term options, but not if you buy before the time-value component of an option's premium is crushed.
frustrating with abnb (down), amd (up) and then the bullish comments on spx yesterday when we fell another half percent. You're certain to mention the winners always, but I wish you'd touch on the losers...
Thank again! can you please share updates during the day in your Telegram, Telegram is easy to follow.
Tic, do you have an update for SAVA? Last time you mentioned said you were bullish. Thanks.
FOMC is always shady business so be nimble folks !
Thanks Tic.
I just don’t think there’s any way they come in with some hawkish twist here. Prob more indifferent to dovish so as not to further damage dems.
Tic bro how do you go from saying 4050/4100 to not saying those levels at all in this read, also no thought on $DXY , $TLT ? The weekly/ monthly setups look unreal for reversal and to give this market more legs higher, I see the 3770 level on the hourly but tic what about NAS here I see it way extended compared to emini I just don’t see how or why you’re expected below 3830 now... also $AAPL held your 150 entire week and $TSLA held 218 for multiple sessions now...