More SPX / SPX option trade gold: "easier to react after event than have a position before it." Even options that expire at session end have a time value & intrinsic value component; after the events - FOMC St & subsequent conf - the time value component of option premium crushes b/c the unknown is known, I wait for the crush then take a position based on market reaction. I rarely trade options b/f earnings / market events for same reason. 2019 spent year watching Tic trade & working on new trade systems like post earnings option trades on big option traders AAPL, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA ,etc. There are often spectacular profits to be made trading the reaction with very short term options, but not if you buy before the time-value component of an option's premium is crushed.
So actually the closer you get to exp on options the time value bleeds faster. So that doesnt make much sense. I think you are referring to the volatility crush - part of the option contract's value is tied to implied vol and usually gets crushed after big events like earnings/FOMC. But theta will do its thing regardless. Short term options always will be a high risk high reward play-- I look at them as I have to be willing to lose the entire position and I position size accordingly. Good luck today!
Yes, its technically volatility crush once event / earnings have occurred, but its acceleration of time value erosion exponentially on OpEx also as you approach expiration that kills ya intraday on OpEx unless you cut losses quick (Emini Tic has said be nimble & he cuts #ES_F losses quickly when futures are down 3 pts from his entry - that's 30 cents on SPY so easy to limit losses). I don't recommend trading on OpEx unless you've observed many & tracked prices for study. In general time value begins to erode exponentially once expiration is less than 30 days. I trade OXY options out a week or two but usually only intraday. You see it happen on a compressed time frame when trading options expiring after session's close and you learn there's no hoping, as soon as tape tells you you're wrong you gotta sell quickly & take small loss. That affords opportunity to get in lower if move reverses, as it often does into 4pm NY close (and the 15-minute extending trading session until 4:15pm for major index options (but not $SPX). I find expiring SPY options to be the best risk / reward as SPY are most liquid options in the world & its fairly easy to limit your loss to 50% or less of the trade for wins that can return as much as 900% with Tic's #OF levels and keeping an eye on stocks like AAPL, etc as Tic recommends. Good luck
frustrating with abnb (down), amd (up) and then the bullish comments on spx yesterday when we fell another half percent. You're certain to mention the winners always, but I wish you'd touch on the losers...
Tic bro how do you go from saying 4050/4100 to not saying those levels at all in this read, also no thought on $DXY , $TLT ? The weekly/ monthly setups look unreal for reversal and to give this market more legs higher, I see the 3770 level on the hourly but tic what about NAS here I see it way extended compared to emini I just don’t see how or why you’re expected below 3830 now... also $AAPL held your 150 entire week and $TSLA held 218 for multiple sessions now...
dxy still hovering around 112... thats good
Excellence in levels and accuracy. cheers
he kills it. takes patience but so on point. always.
almost 3770 ;)
My takeaway. “We’ve raised 375 bps and inflation hasn’t budged” Means SIGNIFICANT hikes will be on tap Things will start breaking in 2023
I love when Tic is this quiet...
My guess Fed will do .5
Anyone here from tic
Todays open is trash
More SPX / SPX option trade gold: "easier to react after event than have a position before it." Even options that expire at session end have a time value & intrinsic value component; after the events - FOMC St & subsequent conf - the time value component of option premium crushes b/c the unknown is known, I wait for the crush then take a position based on market reaction. I rarely trade options b/f earnings / market events for same reason. 2019 spent year watching Tic trade & working on new trade systems like post earnings option trades on big option traders AAPL, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA ,etc. There are often spectacular profits to be made trading the reaction with very short term options, but not if you buy before the time-value component of an option's premium is crushed.
So actually the closer you get to exp on options the time value bleeds faster. So that doesnt make much sense. I think you are referring to the volatility crush - part of the option contract's value is tied to implied vol and usually gets crushed after big events like earnings/FOMC. But theta will do its thing regardless. Short term options always will be a high risk high reward play-- I look at them as I have to be willing to lose the entire position and I position size accordingly. Good luck today!
Yes, its technically volatility crush once event / earnings have occurred, but its acceleration of time value erosion exponentially on OpEx also as you approach expiration that kills ya intraday on OpEx unless you cut losses quick (Emini Tic has said be nimble & he cuts #ES_F losses quickly when futures are down 3 pts from his entry - that's 30 cents on SPY so easy to limit losses). I don't recommend trading on OpEx unless you've observed many & tracked prices for study. In general time value begins to erode exponentially once expiration is less than 30 days. I trade OXY options out a week or two but usually only intraday. You see it happen on a compressed time frame when trading options expiring after session's close and you learn there's no hoping, as soon as tape tells you you're wrong you gotta sell quickly & take small loss. That affords opportunity to get in lower if move reverses, as it often does into 4pm NY close (and the 15-minute extending trading session until 4:15pm for major index options (but not $SPX). I find expiring SPY options to be the best risk / reward as SPY are most liquid options in the world & its fairly easy to limit your loss to 50% or less of the trade for wins that can return as much as 900% with Tic's #OF levels and keeping an eye on stocks like AAPL, etc as Tic recommends. Good luck
frustrating with abnb (down), amd (up) and then the bullish comments on spx yesterday when we fell another half percent. You're certain to mention the winners always, but I wish you'd touch on the losers...
This is just in my opinion but there are 100s to 1000s of losers a day. the clarity, is in the small amount of winners, he sometimes mentions
Thank again! can you please share updates during the day in your Telegram, Telegram is easy to follow.
Tic, do you have an update for SAVA? Last time you mentioned said you were bullish. Thanks.
FOMC is always shady business so be nimble folks !
Thanks Tic.
I just don’t think there’s any way they come in with some hawkish twist here. Prob more indifferent to dovish so as not to further damage dems.
Tic bro how do you go from saying 4050/4100 to not saying those levels at all in this read, also no thought on $DXY , $TLT ? The weekly/ monthly setups look unreal for reversal and to give this market more legs higher, I see the 3770 level on the hourly but tic what about NAS here I see it way extended compared to emini I just don’t see how or why you’re expected below 3830 now... also $AAPL held your 150 entire week and $TSLA held 218 for multiple sessions now...