Daily Plan 8/25 '22

NVDA, TSLA

Traders-

The run continues for yet another good day for OrderFlow as I nailed all 3 out of 3 earnings’ calls this week.

On Sunday, I was bullish on PANW at 500 and bearish on ZM at 100. These were both good calls as one was up 15% and the other was down 20%.

Then last night, I issued a bearish earnings call for NVDA. I felt as long as we stayed below 175, we may retest lower levels today at the earnings.

This proved to be quite correct as NVDA sold off 173 today, down to 163 and change after market close at time of this post.

Here is the link to this plan: Daily 8/24 '22

Not only was my NVDA call very good, my levels on TSLA continue to do well.

TSLA was up quite a bit from my levels shared here in the weekly call. But today it ran afoul of the resistance which the longer term readers know to be at 910 level.

In fact this was the high of the day before stock settled below 900, at one point selling almost back to 895.

Even on the emini side, we had the textbook Scenario 2 play out from last night.

We opened barely below 4130 , and did not trade much below 4130 at all throughout the IB.

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This made the market go test that 4145. Briefly find some selling there, the level eventually gave up and we traded all the way up to my target of 4160, missing it barely by a few ticks.

We then found sellers there and traded down back to 4130 and settled the day around 4145.

Emini Scenarios for today

Chart A Emini Daily

My levels for tomorrow

So with less than 2 days away from the Powell’s Jackson Hole conference remarks, and barely hours away from the GDP numbers tomorrow morning, the market today understandably had very little volume coming in slightly above 1.2 M lots.

IMO the technicals are going to matter very little on Friday as the market will parse Powell’s comments out and try to figure out the hawkish or dovish undertones.

Now, with oil back above 95 dollars to the barrel and global inflation scenario worsening, I do not know why Powell will come out to be any more dovish than he has to, however he has surprised me before and I am not going to bet on what comes out of his statements.

I will rather focus on what levels may lead the action.

So, per Scenario 2 we found the bidders above 4130 today and we did rally into 4160 OrderFlow level today. 4130 Weekly target level has been sticky for the bulls and has had a hard time offer below it as of this blog.

I personally think , with a key SOX component like NVDA trade on weakness today, and TSLA finding some offers at 910, both of these names may offer me key clues at the open.

In general, if I am a shorter term bear here, I do not want to see a TSLA go trade above 910, NVDA go bid above 167-170 etc.

With this said, my key levels for tomorrow will be 4160/4170.

Scenario 1: Open or bids above 4170 in the AM cash session, combined with a TSLA above 910, may lead to a test of 4200 which will be a key level for the longer term bears to defend.

Scenario 2: I do think if at the open we remain offered below 4160, with weak Tic TOP at -2 or more, keeps pressure on bulls and once/if we close below 4130 at the D1 (Daily) level , it opens the doors to softness and targets 4090.

At time of this post, we traded around 4155.

In other news, folks to this blog are familiar with an old name CCJ which I had shared earlier in Spring around 22 bucks before the stock rallied into 30 handles.

It had since fallen on hard time, but had a good week thus far, closing near 27.

I think as long as 25 handle holds on this stock, we may retest prior highs around 30-32 dollars. This is indeed a volatile stock , just as most in energy complex are due to geopolitics, so there is that.

CCJ D1

~ Tic Top

Image source

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