Weekly Plan 3/5/23
Traders-
Let’s review the plan from last week and see what worked and what did not.
On the emini side, my key levels were 3900 and 3970 and my main expectation was that the dips may get bought for the weekly time frame near 3900.
While we did not trade this level at all during the week, the closest we came to it was near 3920 and that was in the overnight session on Wednesday.
The bears had a good start early in the week, but they squandered the lead in mid week. The market got strongly bid up in the last two days of the week and we closed the session at 4060. See below from my prior weekly plan.
To summarize, for the sell off from 4200 to intensify below 3900 or so, I need to see Gold sell off. I need to see VIX above 22-23. I need to see VALUG crash below these 550 handles. If this is not going to happen, I think we could range here between 3900 and 4060.I was also a bull on Gold and Silver stocks near 1800 last week. This week we saw a strong auction in Gold and related names like NEM, SLV, GC etc. Gold rallied about 50 handles from the lows of last week.
Below were my other calls from this week:
TSLA - support level shared last week which was the precise low of the week before about a 25 point rally from this level. See the attached link above for all of my calls.
LAZR- I was bullish on LAZR and LAZR had a great week, rallying about 20 % last week to close near $10.
NFLX and AMZN- I was bullish on both for the weekly time frames but the stocks did not do much and remained largely unchanged. AMZN did have a strong finish on Friday off the OrderFlow levels.
SPOT: SPOT was another name which I was bullish on at 115 area and we saw strong action in SPOT to wrap the week.
NQ- I was bullish on NQ at the weekly lows and we saw about a 400 dollar rally in NQ. We ended up closing slightly above 12250 for the week. See below.
On the NQ side of the house, I was bearish at 12800 and we now sold down into almost 11800, a full 1000 points lower.
For this week, 11850 will be my key level. It is near 11999 now. For NQ to have more downside here, I think we need to break 11850. Else we could float back up to 12250.Other calls that I had-
Bitcoin bear at 25000- this was a good call in hindsight as we saw a complete collapse in Bitcoin to end the week near 22000. My take on the sell off? I think the whole crypto ecosystem is very valuable and is in nascent stages of development so it is rife with governance and trust issues. However, I find it hard to place Bitcoin in all of this. Bitcoin to me is 100% a speculative asset and there is no value for me personally beyond being a speculative asset. I think Bitcoin could sell off much lower once/if the general market turns. 12000-12500 could be next support if and when we get there.
AVGO- I was an earnings bull for Broadcom and we saw a very nice, 50 dollar zipper in AVGO off my levels.
There were other calls and I would share them below as I think they may have continuation in weeks and days to come. Subscribe below to get these in your inbox almost every day.
Before diving deeper into the levels for next week, let us take stock of the key events
In current intermediate term cycle, I have been bearish at 4200 with the expectation that we could see some sort of support come in at 3900 or so. I have shared last week how this level below us is almost as equal as 4200. Bears started out well, however some of the FED messaging last week was a problem as it was perceived as dovish by the market.
Bears are also facing headwinds from Dollar weakness, in particular the strength Gold and some of the commodity pairs (Comm dolls) like Aussie Dollar. For this to change, the bears want to see some bids return to the Dollar index ( $DXY ).
The main event of next week is going to be Tuesday and Wednesday Powell commentary as well as the non Farm Payrolls on Friday. I will be sharing my thoughts real time with the subscribers via the chat. So get the APP and make sure you turn the notifications on.
This is going to be a key testimony and comes on heels of the February 7th commentary by Powell when the S&P500 surged upon Powell mentioning the word disinflation a dozen times.
I think any gains in the S&P500 due to any perceived Powell dovishness may be transitory but more on this later below.
