Weekly Plan 2/19/23
Hi Traders -
Welcome to a slightly abridged (and slightly delayed) weekly newsletter. Remember tomorrow, the stock market will be shuttered. Monday will be a bank holiday for both US and CA, NYSE will remain close while some futures markets will open for a few hours. Futures will have an early halt at 12 PM CST. Normal reopening at 5 PM.
Let us jump into some events next week that can impact the markets and then do a quick wrap of last week’s auctions.
On Tuesday, the key events will be the CAD CPI and the US Flash services PPI reports. We also have NVDA earnings on Tuesday which can set the tone of risk on/risk off for rest of the week.
NVDA stock has been a on a tear of late and is up more than 45% YTD. I was a bull on this stock at 140 but recently my stance soured at 230 before the sell off in the stock on Thursday and Friday to trade near 210, about 10% off from the bearish levels. Previous NVDA earnings, the company saw a 17% cut in YOY revenues. It reported a profit per share of 58 cents which was down 50% from a year ago. The company has seen a slump in it’s computing products but those have been for some part been offset by a rise in the AI and gaming related offerings.
While I was a NVDA bear last week and we dropped from 230 to almost below 210, with the related market action, I can see NVDA retest it’s recent highs near 230 but I personally can not be a bull on this stock at 230+! It is now trading near 210. This stock I think is historically very overvalued here already, I think it is more expensive right now near 250 than it was near 350! My long term levels have been shared with Subscribers last week.
Other key events next week will be:
The FOMC minutes on Wednesday
The GDP report on Thursday
And the most important of them all, the PCE index inflation report on Friday
Below is a link to the plan from last week. I want to do a quick a recap of some of the names I shared last week or so.
S&P500: On the S&P500 side, the levels I shared last Sunday were the low of the week and the high of the week with no trading above the upper level and no trading below the lower level.
I was a bear on both Gold and TLT (bonds) and both saw continued bearish pressure this past week.
I was an ABNB bull last week and we saw a rally of about 25% this week in the stock.
On TSLA I was a bull at the close of the week near 190 with my target at 210. This was a decent call as we saw a good rally in TSLA after the sell off from 215 where I became bearish on this.
We saw good action in the ridesharing names like LYFT and UBER. Both I was a bull on.
One name I liked was WEAT at 8 dollars but it did not find any traction at the open and it closed the week near 7.8. As long as it remains above 7.5, I think it could still trade higher.
I was a NET bull at 60 expecting a test of 70 which also met the target this week.
META for instance waiting for the general market downward momentum to establish to begin filling some of the gaps near 150.
If you have not already, consider subscribing to my newsletter for more such ideas. Daily updates include intraday chat room, weekly stock ideas, S&P500 and Nasdaq levels along with several other names shared from time to time like the Crude oil futures, Gold, Bonds etc