Trump Stocks Win.
Daily Plan 7.16.24
Hey guys -
What a day!
Almost all of the 5 or so low beta stocks I shared last night in the weekly plan were huge hits today but the crown was taken by MARA which rose about 20% today. The $20 calls alone were up like 400%.
I want to share my opinion today about a couple of names that I think can do well, if Trump is reelected. FWIW- this is not a political analysis but common sense analysis.
It does not really matter to me what is your politics- I really am not concerned as I am myself an independent. However, we have to sometimes deep dive into the current prevailing winds and see if we can gain an edge. I do sense that after his near death experience, Trump if reelected will be pushed more towards centrist policies which could benefit a broad range of industries. I have said before as we get closer to the election day, I will be sharing and updating a list of stocks which I think can do better under both Biden and Trump.
Dollar weakness
I think Dollar should get softer. This should benefit the likes of Bitcoin, Gold, Silver.
Only on Saturday I shared Bitcoin at 58K before it hit my target of 65K.
I think if Dollar remains subdued below 105, this could help Bitcoin trade higher as long as we hold 60K.
Crypto
I like Crypto space. This is not a new position but something I shared many months ago when stocks like MARA were trading at 3 bucks. COIN was at 50!
Anyways, I think we could see an explosion in crypto related activities and innovation.
A few names which I think can do well are :
SQ: I shared this around 60 bucks and is now 72 dollars. This company has very little debt and should be seeing its top and bottomline grow. As Line in Sand, the 60 level remains important.
HOOD: I called for dips to be supported on HOOD and it has since rallied into 23. I think this looks good and is primed to push higher into 27-30 is 20 holds.
Small caps
I am also a small cap bull as mentioned in the weekly. I like IWM action as long as it holds 207. It is 216 now. I think in coming weeks there may be a large number of small cap opportunities which I will be sharing as they show up on my radar.
Defense/Cyber Sec
Google shook up the M&A world with its acquisition and I think this opens up an arms race to acquire more such companies.
I personally like both ZS and CRWD in this space. They are 204 and 375 respectively.
Energy
Small nuclear play called SMR. It is now about 14 but I think if 11-12 holds on SMR, this is headed much higher above 20 and then some.
Volatility
CME.
Watch 190 level on this, I think if 190 were to hold, the exchange is primed to do well if volatility rises. This could push higher into 230s.
Law and Order
Two names I like in this area are AXON and GEO. Remember GEO is up about 300% from my $6 level shared way back when. This looks good and could squeeze some more juice.
AXON has majority of its revenue in below segments-
Professional TASERS
Personal TASERS
Cameras
Training of law enforcement
Digital evidence from Drone footage - storage and management.
It is the digital cloud evidence management line of business that is one of their strongest growing segments. The cloud revenue as well as annualized revenue is growing at a steady 50% year over year.
Now with the crazy events of this weekend, there is going to be increasing calls to deploy more, not less surveillance assets like drones, to keep an eye out on what is going on at such events, as well as bigger cities. Not only this, the company is expanding its TASER product line for the corrections officers and correction centers. I think this company should continue to grow its revenues and EPS and as long as 260 holds, I think this pushes higher into 400s. It is 308 now.
PLTR
PLTR was originally shared here around 6 bucks and is now trading at 28 dollars. Vance, Trump’s VP pick has close ties with Thiel and should in general be helpful for something like PLTR. I see PLTR push higher above 35-40 as long as we hold 23-25 on this stock.
PAYX
Paychex is used by a lot of small businesses for their payroll processing. The stock really has not gone anywhere in last few months, however this 110 level is quite important and if this holds, we could see push higher into 140s.
These are few names on my radar which I think could benefit if Trump were to be reelected. I will be updating and adding to this list for our subscribers and continue to share shorter term options ideas where it makes sense.
Key levels for tomorrow
Now regular readers know that I have been desiring the 5250-5300 handles as an attractive swing support level. If you talk to any one right now, 9 out of 10 traders will say this level will not trade in our lifetime- however, if it does, the names I shared above, will all be down big. No one will want to touch them. In my view it is better to want stocks when no one wants them. So these could be at really attractive levels if we get just one bout of volatility that takes us down to 5200s. I am not saying we will, I am saying if we do. Between now and November there are 15+ weeks. A lot can happen in these weeks- this list is sort of a roadmap to be prepared if something does happen!
Do I think AXON is better at 280 than at 310? Is a HOOD better at 19-20 than 25? 100%!
Would you agree?
As far as tomorrow goes..
5670 will be my key level. Main risk event tomorrow is the retail sales which are expected to come in quite soft.
The main issue I have right now with these levels is 3 fold-
We came to trade that weekly upper level and failed.
VIX is kind of resistance here at 13. Does not want to hold below that 13.
Yields tightened a bit today. Despite the Donald news. Very surprising. Even though the dollar did not poke its head above 104 and Bitcoin surged 10%!
So anyways, at a basic level, I need to see e-mini remain perched here above 5660-5670 tomorrow to try another swipe at 5710 and if we are able to clear it, then may be it is greenlight to trade higher into 5730s.
I want to see the retail sales numbers tomorrow and may send an update in chat room below like the one I sent at the open today with the support level. Stay tuned.
This is it for now folks. These posts take a lot of thought process, if you benefit from it, consider sharing and subscribing as it helps me publish this for most folks at a more reasonable cost.
~ toc
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