Trade Plan 12/22

Folks:

A) Wrap up

I was bullish coming into the session today as the open was above 4553. We opened about 70 handles off my 4525 from yesterday where I pretty much got bullish while a lot of FinTwit was awaiting death of S&P500 which never came . At time of this post, S&P500 Emini is trading 4635. Full 110 handles off my lows.

I also shared other names like $AMZN and $GOOG at the lows yesterday which are now up 100 dollars each. MU another one of my stocks shared at 70 bucks is a huge winner today, now trading 90 dollars with room to run.

Bullish Tic Toc at lows yesterday

On top of this I also shared 4590 level as the bullish intraday break out which preceded a 45 point rip at time of this post . See below.

Telegram 4590. Now 4635.

I want to share a brief blurb about my continued expectation from the FED heading into the next year..

I think whether there is inflation or no inflation, the US cannot afford to do any rate hikes. The rates will remain anemically low. This is what $TLT and the bonds are telling me atleast.

With this context, I think these names can win next year:

1. Rental units: It is no secret I have been bullish on housing and housing stocks all this year while most said they cannot go up any more. I remain firm on US housing in select zip codes. I am playing this phenomenon using VNQ, a Vanguard ETF. It is about 110 bucks now with a decent dividend of about 2%. This theme fails if we suddenly enter recession next year, which I do not frankly see from here.

2. Gold: I have been firm on Gold for most part of last 2 years. I am playing it with NEM. .It is 58 bucks right now .. this theme fails if we see sustained tightening next year. I really do not think that will transpire.

3. Silicon SMH: I do think another potential winner of inflation and low rates is SMH. MU is part of it and I think it may have room to run. Now 90 bucks. It takes about 3 years to make a new Semi conductor factory. The quality standards have to be very high at the nanometer scale level to ensure integrity of these magical chips. I do not see supply glut until 2023 so it may help these stocks.

4. Google GOOG: this is by far my favorite tech stock. I have been bullish on this since 1800 last year. I am not ready to give it up yet at 2880.

Yeah so wanted to share some names with folks as I wrap up some year end writing. I will share some more names with subscribers which I think may win next year. Stay tuned!

B) Here is my trade plan for tomorrow:

1. My Line in sand (LIS) is 4611.

2. If the OPEN is above 4611 or if we bid above 4611 tomorrow, I wanna be cautiously bullish with a target of 4660/4672.

3. Conversely, an open below 4611 or any offers below 4611 may mean we retest the 4580 handle from today.

4. Emini at time of this post traded 4635.

5. Emini prices can be easily translated to SPY prices by dividing by 10.01. SPX translation differs though out the contract life and can be easily had from any broker. At most times it trades 5-10 point premium or discounts to the future price of the most forward month.

~ Tic

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