Technical context. Short term.
Daily Plan 4.16.24
Hey folks-
The primary view was to see sellers emerge at 5211-5220 due to the HVN moving lower over last 3 weeks and we saw a nice sell day today with emini dropping below 5100 at one point to close the day at 5100.
TSLA
Tesla had a bad session today what with the layoff news which have created a credible FUD in market for TSLA.
However with stock being at 160, I think a lot of earnings anxiety is priced in. It is not like the stock is now at 200 or 250 before the ER. So I think a lot of that margin of worry is priced in. Earnings will be bad. However, the stock is also now trading down into 160.
I think this 160 is an important level and I think if this holds, we could trade back into 182. Slightly longer term if TSLA breaks on earnings, 137-140 is a key long term support for me. What is my catalyst for TSLA?
It is not cyber truck, it is not any of their cars, but I think if TSLA can solve FSD, this can create a huge licensable market for them. It has a lot of kinks to work thru but at the same time they are ahead of pretty much everyone like Super Cruise by GM.
AAPL
I have similar view onto AAPL which does not report until the 2nd next month.
Note that I shared my bullish level on AAPL at 168 weeks ago and that has held well. As long as this level holds, I think we may be headed back to 185. It is now 175.
This brings me to my Emini ES levels for tomorrow
The market knifed thru the 50 DMA on this name today aided in part by lot of geopolitics fear. However, traditional TA, I just think prices on cross of 50 DMA are unfair prices. If you are not bearish at 5300 , at 5200 and now at 5070-5100 you are bearish, I think the view is a little unfair. What were you doing at 5300?
So I think as long as we hold this 5070-5080 on the emini, we are probably headed higher into 5211.
Mostly my reasoning is based on -
50 DMA cross
NVDA near 860 support
TSLA near 160 support
AAPL near 170 support
Scenario 1: As long as we hold 5100 on the emini ES, I think we could see some support come in to retest 5130. A Daily close above 5130 could set its sights on 5211.
Scenario 2: For further bearish raid here into 5070 , I think the bears will need some help from stocks like NVDA take out 850 again, for TSLA to take out 150. If we open and remain below 5100 on emini in the AM, we may be able to test 5070 and could see support there. NVDA earnings are well late in the earnings season but we should get an idea from TSM which reports on 18th. Personally I think NVDA is taking some beating from other SOX stocks like AMD and INTC but really I do think NVDA is different than an AMD.
Remember the only 2 news that I am now most interested in from a macro view is the FED speak tomorrow, plus the mega cap earnings that begin with TSLA, AAPL etc in less than a week.
Everything else for me is noise at the moment. One good tech earning I think should set the tone for the rest. Likewise if it bombs, it could set a precedent for others to follow.
~ tic
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