Session Recap
11/12/21
Folks:
Wanted to send out a quick recap of the session before Monday’s plan and levels which will be out later, most likely Sunday.
Per Figure A below, key levels and context were continued weakness as long as we stayed below order flow level 4660.
After the plan was posted, 4660 held any upside over night and 4643 from yesterday kept the lids on the bottom. We opened at 4656 and in the initial balance zone (IB) , we traded down as low as 4645. Se Figure B below for context of current session (technically).
There were a few red flags which I noticed about an hour into the market open:
A lot of PUTS expiring today at strike prices of 4620-4625. The volume on these puts just exploded the moment we got to that 4645 handle and then retreated. This was a likely warning that these options will not be compensated today.
I was also not very happy that the TRIN opened as high as 2.2 at 630 AM. And then did not sell off even due to such a negative read! We started a downtrend in TRIN , found some support at 1.5 and then once we broke 1.5, 4645 was the low of the RTH session.
Limitation of TRIN is that it does not adjust cap weighted . S&P500 on the other hand is a cap weighted index (more relevance given to bigger stocks). Therefore, this must be validated with other things, for example, bigger stocks like what is AAPL and MSFT, TSLA etc. doing.
Anyways, around 830 AM, we just took off.
4660 was pummeled, and for a few brief seconds the market pulled back to 4660 and then took off as high as 4678, carving out a high of the day as we speak.
I then gave 4676 as a potential resistance. Which has pretty much held ever since, trading as low as 4668 after I sent my tweet. See below: Tic Toc 4676 (HOD)
It is now late Friday.
Unless we start trading above 4680, any moves from here on will be inconclusive from an order flow POV. However, do note two things:
A close today below 4676 (my order flow resistance) keeps the bears in the game for next week. I wont be so sure if we closed above 4680 today.
A close below 4660 definitely arouses bear dreams and hopes and may actually cause volatility on Sunday Globex open.
At the time of this recap, we just offered 4672 on emini.
See Figure B below for current session technical context.
What else?
On the earnings front, I proved to be very right about AstraZeneca $AZN to avoid it at 63 dollars at yesterday's close. See Figure A. The stock dropped 8 % now trading around 58 bucks. However, 56-58 are good levels on this stock with LIS around 52-53 bucks.
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Have a great weekend!
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Very nice update !!!!
Thank you for your knowledge!!