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Mickey's avatar

Good comparison/analysis but only difference between now and 1970/80 are as follow:

1) $ value decay. I think back than $ was backed by Gold but not anymore and they just keep printing it and it keep loosing the value

2) unlimited $$ printing led so much inflation in spx/nq component prices, so the asset prices are not organic enough and may get into fundamentals/value test

3) national debt is way too high now and there is no easy way out to reduce it unless we go with 50% tax rate for all 😂

4) raising oil and other commodity prices

5) threat of major geopolitical event

6) extremely high consumer debt and other personal debts but limited wage growth, so there is a gap there

Just few other point we can use for comparison and its potential impacts on spx.

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Mojo Jojo's avatar

This post helps understand parts of the macro thesis, appreciate it, would love to see more 🔗 posts from here to impacts of Dollar, Oil, Debt holding countries like China and Japan on US market.

Is Japan unwinding US debt slowly, how does that relate to Dollar and Oil. Some things I've been studying and would love to hear more from your PoV. This is purely for LT investment goals.

It feels like Investors need to be mindful of the risk of tapering globalization, primarily led by China 🤝 Russia 🤝 India and Saudis and others on the fringes, vs consumer economies like the US and EU.

China thinks in several decades and it 🤔 they have a plan, they have most of the ingredients to go "vertical" with the other countries, whereas US and especially EU need to figure out a lot more. I have somewhat high conviction China will take Taiwan before Midterms sensing an opportune time of weakness from US and Cornpop. That means TSMC, which means impacts to many many darling mega caps.. I want to assume this cannot happen, but it's definitely the 🃏 on the table for 🇺🇸 vs. 🇨🇳

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