My Plan for 12/14
Folks-
For the 5th day in a row, balance trading conditions prevailed. The levels that worked in S&P500 E-mini , my regular substack readers are no strangers to those and have been reiterated several times in last 10 days or so in my newsletter.
That is the good part.
Now while I have avoided the temptation to become overtly bearish while many folks have been selling into the support in low 4660, the session today may have offered few clues which I cannot ignore for rest of the week. Read below for more.
Here are a few very early alarms. Again I make nothing of these if we do not close below 4667 today. If we close Wednesday or Thursday above 4710, I make nothing of it and I remain bullish on overall market. However, once/if we start closing below 4667, if we start chipping away at 4646, I will say it is time to revisit my bullish bias. Atleast for the weekly time frame.
Having said that, here are few things to note:
A lot of defensive stocks like KO and PG have made new highs today. Traditionally they are recession stocks. Them making new highs, while TSLA the momentum sweetheart makes new lows, gives me a pause.
Main S&P500 stocks like AAPL and MSFT are very top heavy right here. I like them. However I will like them more 20-30 points lower.
This may be just rebalancing by many funds into the year end and that is fine . I will play it by the ears and trade per my levels.
With this context and background, here is my play for tomorrow. Remember no one can predict what will happen the next minute, let alone 24 hours from now, so I will depending on order flow at the time, send update to the subscribers via Telegram. This is also BTW one of the largest market Telegrams with over 27000 chatters. Here is the link to join: Tic Toc Messenger
As always I will confirm with the internals. If you have not already, here is my post on internals: Internal Secrets
Below are my 2 main scenarios for Tuesday, the 14th:
If the open is below 4667, or gets offered below 4667, I will be bearish on the market and look to sell rallies with targets into 4646 and 4657.
An open or bids above 4676 will be bullish for me and targets the recent highs at 4702.
An open above 4667 but below 4676 will be neutral OPEN for me.
A clear, crisp direction for next 100 points may be revealed on a close above 4710 or below 4665 IMO. At time of this blog, emini offered 4676.
What else?
Little worried about TSLA and AMZN to be frank. Now 965 and 3405 respectively. Over the weekend, my Twitter was consensually very bullish on AMZN. Such sentiments may prove to be right longer term but can be a pain in the short term. This gets legs if we start closing below 4665 in S&P500. 950 and 3380 are solid supports on Amazon and Tesla. If they give up, it may be a little more than just a shallow sell imo. It could be a 3-5% one.
I did quite well on joining the bearish gang on AMC and GME. Both of these I was bearish at 42 and 176 respectively. AMC has been cut in half now trading 23 and change. GME also suffered heavy losses now down to 138. All these meme trending hashtags on Twitter are simply a fodder for the short sellers to find and sell into liquidity. I never pay these hashtags any attention. Neither should you. Trading is hard as it is, don’t complicate it more.
Weed stocks I was super bearish on at 13 dollars. TLRY now down to 8 bucks. These stocks are just bad from any angle I look at them. Cannot / do no wanna touch them.
WEED loses one third of its value in a month BYND: I am waiting for this to find some bottom and firm up. I think its quite attractive here in low 60’s for a run up by next Summer. LIS is tight about 15 bucks.
What else you want me cover? Drop me a line and I will be happy to :) As always, do not forget to join my email list by subscribing and join almost 10,000 traders like your self to continue receiving updates like this one, up-to 5 times ever week. If this helps you, feel free to share as more shares mean more eyeballs for orderflow which in turn means more activity for order flow levels.
Take care,
Tic
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. Reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms.
These levels are for /ESH22?
Thoughts on IWM please