More Uncertainty Ahead.
Weekly Plan 3.15.26
Hey folks—
Main objective of this publication, of this exercise is to find asymmetric ideas and themes before others do. Over the years, this has been proven time and again, whether it is PLTR at 6 dollars, Gold at 1600, KGC at 6 dollars, TSLA at 100, or a GOOG at 80. Dozens more.
A secondary objective is to find out high probability support and resistance levels in the short term time frames, like intraday and weekly, for income.
To be able to do either of these, you have to monitor the situation as it is, you have to view the reality without adding any of your own perspective lenses.
This means we have to be open to listen to the “other side”. Else we end up in an echo chamber. This war is a perfect example— of not listening to the other side, and we end up in this echo chamber.
If you cannot do that, it is highly unlikely that you will be able to see the reality for what it is.
The reason a lot of folks may not agree with me is that they think the markets can be mastered from technical analysis — the likes of charts and indicators. They think charts alone can give them an edge.
Nothing could be further from truth.
The markets are shaped not by charts but by liquidity and liquidity is driven by what I call Market’s perception of itself. This is a feedback loop. The feedback is non stop and manifests itself as what I call “Continuous auction”. The charts are shaped by markets not the other way around.
The market has no way of knowing that it is in a Head and shoulders or a wedgie or an inverted bat pattern. It can only know that a certain event x has happened (for instance a level has traded) and it was rejected or accepted. Furthermore, it was rejected when all expected it to be accepted or vice versa it was accepted, when all expected it to be rejected.
This is how the markets work, have always worked, and if some crayon doodler thinks otherwise, we can all respectfully agree to disagree.
Now this particular market action raises a lot of interesting questions —
First off, you have to wonder if those closest to Trump knew this was coming as early as September last year.
Remember, we have not made a new high in the S&P in any meaningful way, above the high set back in October of 2025. This is back when I started sensing a lack of any meaningful opportunities in the market. Since September, I have been very lukewarm to most stocks, and especially the mega caps which reeked of distribution at the highs with a few exceptions like GOOG and AMZN— coincidentally these are the only mega caps that have been spared the brunt of this sell off.
Let us go back to the point I made earlier— assume that the inner circle of Trump admin was aware of this attack on Iran dating back to September of last year— this is important because this tells us how this may go down from here. The inner circle has high confidence in this sell off, may be they know this is going to escalate, this is why all rallies get sold.
The age old adage that “Wars are bullish” was not true in this context. If you have studied Trump, he is a disruptor, which means he does things in unconventional ways. One of the ways he expresses his disruptive behavior is that he will often call his friends late at night, per several reports from major journalists, and broadcast his next moves. Often in frustration, many times seeking support from them. This is why a lot of market moves are very well aligned with Trump posts and statements. Some may call it insider trading.
So if this war were ever to be bullish, we would be moving higher. We will be seeing strength in leading stocks. That is not the case as you can all attest. In very simple terms, if Iran was losing this war, or close to surrendering, we will be making new highs in stocks already as the markets are forward looking.
This is a civilizational state, which in other words means, the politics, the culture are homogenous from over 3 millennia. Iran is much more in terms of its makeup like a China, or a Russia — the most homogenous countries in the world right now. A civilizational state will not surrender. This is not going to happen no matter what the price they end up paying.
Now, per what I have been hearing from several trusted sources, Trump wants to get out of this. He is under enormous pressure from our allies like Japan, Koreans, Indians, the Gulf States. These states are in constant contact with the US counterparts, and they are predicting a global recession caused by a blockage of energy supplies. They are pleading with Trump for an offramp as we speak.
Now Trump himself does not have a lot of conviction in any major policy point of view. He governs from instinct, and often instincts can be right but you have to understand that instincts are not based on intelligence or deeper analysis but are more of gut feelings.
Trump’s instincts worked out well in Venezuela. I think Trump got into this war fresh from the easy win in Venezuela where the US kidnapped their leader by bribing the key officials there. This template was tried in Iran but it is not the same case due to the reasons I just explained above.
In my view, below are extremely likely:
I think the energy production of this whole region is now gone offline for several weeks, if not months. It is not coming back, even if this war to end tonight.
I think we will see a surge in inflation in food and energy in weeks and months to come.
This could cause the FED to pause and may be we do not get the 3 interest rate cuts promised this year, especially if CPI by May-June jumps back above 3%.
This is not just going to be limited to the United States but this phenomenon could play out across all major economies— globally.
So, I think Trump is seriously considering an end to this conflict and get out of this mess now.
However, the million dollar question looming at this hour is that can he now get out of this? With the central regime killed in Iran, there is a leadership vacuum. You may have much more fanatical and revengeful people in charge of several smaller factions in Iran. They may act unpredictably despite an announcement of some sort of ceasefire. Even if the war ends today, it may be several weeks to months for normalization of trade route and oil production. So these are important points to consider before you make any sort of long term call here.
My take:
I think we should continue to grind lower here, but with very wide ranges. In bear markets you can have pretty vicious bear market rallies. We need so see some distinct signs on the tape which will confirm an end to the downturn. Turn on your notifications and join the chat room below as I share most updated and most time sensitive urgent levels in the chat below:
Levels for next week
If you recall from my previous weekly post, the Weekly high this week, as well as the weekly low on the week were in fact exactly at the support and resistance levels shared by me last Sunday. We did not do any trading below or above these levels!
In my view, the key market here to watch remains oil. I think if we remain below 100 on oil, and then fall back under 90, this is a very good sign.
On the emini S&P500 side, what I am watching is this 6700 level this week.
So I think an initial reaction at the open could be a spike down lower sub 6600, we last closed at 6625.
As long as we remain below 6650, I think risk to the downside into 6432 or so builds. If you are a bull, you want a quick sell down today sub 6600 to be bid back up above 6650. You do not want a market that remains offered below 6650 all week!
Scenario 1: We can lean on 6684-6700 as key weekly level. If we remain bid below it, I think we can see the market sell off into 6600s. A break below 6600 could target 6430 and that could be supported as an excess low this week.
Scenario 2: If I am a bull here, I very much like to see this market retake 6700 and target 6800, that may be next weekly time frame resistance.
Other themes
SO there are pockets of strength due to technicals, macro or even related markets which I am sharing below.
Starting with VSAT
This is a stock I shared way back when it was like 10 bucks (split adjusted). The stock is now pushing above 40 dollars, in part I think due to the upcoming SpaceX IPO which may be a 1.7 trillion dollars IPO- the largest in history.
Musk and companies run on retail investor mania, as such I do not see a fundamental case for these type of stocks, but in the run unto these IPOS in Summer, you could see stocks like VSAT benefit from it as the entire industry around it benefits from flows.
May be VSAT is a little stretched at 45, but I think if it pulls back 10-15%, I think it could be nice risk to reward for push higher unto 50 dollars. With Line in Sand near 32-33.
CF
With the farmer situation set to worsen, I think these stocks like CF could benefit in next few months to a year.
I think Trump will soon announce some sort of stimulus for farmers and CF may rally into 150. It is 129 at the moment. With 110 as key line in sand which I do not want to lose on CF.
Micron
With MU, if you are a regular reader, you had this in your inbox at 80 dollars as my top stock.
The stock now is up 5 fold and is now trading near 420 bucks.
They report on 18th. I think a split here is very nice and welcome.
In my experience, even though MU could appear overvalued, these type of stocks can still double in my opinion.
At the same time, these type of stocks can endure 10-20% sell off while they get there.
So I am a buyer of MU on any dips. 360-380 will be my line in sand. I think if we do not crash below my line in sand and remain below it, this MU stock could be a 1000 dollar stock.
This is it for now folks. If you want more ideas like a MU at 80 bucks and a VSAT at 10 dollars in your inbox, make sure you like and subscribe. Pricing is cheap right now, with surging inflation I will have to raise prices, so make sure you lock any our low rates forever. Your cost for cutting edge market intel will never go up as long as we continue to publish.
~ tic
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