Fiscal Stimmy Unleashed
Daily Plan 11.8.24
Hey trader-
The support level last night was 5952. This level did not trade in the cash session, but in the extended session, this happened to be the exact low of the day, before a move higher into 6010s.
Right now the market is very well bid. We saw this in FOMC today as well where the volatility was close to 0. We are not seeing any meaningful sell side activity right now and we closed the session really super tightly above 6000 at 6006.
Last week, I also shared 3 option ideas- lo and behold each one of the 3 option ideas went vertical.
For instance, the TSLA call I shared at 3 dollars, was today trading above 12 bucks.
The NVDA CALL at 1 dollar was trading at around 10 bucks.
The ARKK Call was up like 5X.
And then on top of that you have thematic plays like the jail stock GEO 0.00%↑ which went ballistic after Trump made his desires known about deporting a bunch of people in the US without papers. We shared this GEO when it used to be like 10 bucks. It is like 25 now. If you are not a long term reader, you don’t even know what you are missing out on.
Anyways, I digress. This market right now is high on hopes of a lot of stimmy which is coming. Which is coming in next few months. This is a not a market to be bearish yet- and we shared this months upon months ago.
For instance, look at this TSLA stock. We gave it at 240 only last week, and it is now 3 dollars short of 300. Does the auction look like bearish? Is this a good spot to be shorting this stock?
I don’t believe so. I think in my personal view, this stock is headed now into 350s.
This is absolutely the best time to be active in markets if I think about it. Brand new president with natural proclivity for loads of stimmy. There will be days to short this later, I do not see it today.
Now no one knows how this Presidency will be, I certainly don’t know, but the expectation right now from this Presidency is quite high. On top of that, you have this fresh NQ breakout which is keeping things bid as well.
Even when you look at slow movers like AAPL. When AAPL sold off after earnings, we said this could still be headed to 240s. And now at 226, it does look like so. With NVDA, despite the doom and gloom, we said we can’t be short on NVDA at 100 and here it is a 50% higher in like 5 weeks.
Frankly I like SMCI here also at 25. I would not be surprised if it heads back into 30-31 and if this manages a close or two above 32, I think 50 is game.
Folks, to clarify, last night I made a comment that I don’t know how much longer I will be doing this, which some misunderstood it me saying I don’t know if I will be in markets for long. That is not what I meant. I am a creature of markets and will remain so for a long-long time. I meant the whole newsletter thing- we will reassess this after a year or so.
So back to what I was saying earlier, that how hard it has been to determine levels in this backdrop. So due to these reasons, I am gonna lean on the FOMC lows today around 5987.
Scenario 1: I think we could remain bid here, unless we begin to see some closes below 5987, I think if this is supported we could retest 6034-6035 next. We are now around 6000.
I may send out a chat update if we do manage to find some sellers below 5987. Stay tuned. Make sure you are able to use the code below and get in at lower cost as last chance today. Please don’t ping me later asking for lower prices as that is simply not possible.
~ toc
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