Daily Tic Plan 1/6/2022
Not enough blood 🩸 yet
Good Afternoon Traders-
What a monster day! At the close yesterday, I had turned bearish and was just waiting for that 4771 to break for a bearish , technical confirmation. I sent several warnings as I saw 👀 weakness being developed on tape in real time.
Order flow had already BTW started showing chinks in the market armor, even before Christmas. However we needed some confirmation on tape. See below .
See more below from my recent tweets. No more lots could trade above my 4790, once it broke.
I could have been bearish even earlier upon that break of 4797, but due to an abundance of caution chose to wait for break of the multi-day support at 4771.
I had been sending multiple warnings throughout the session yesterday and today- and while I expected to be right, I was pleasantly surprised to be right this week itself! Volatility is good - as long as you are on the right side of it!
I decided to open today’s trade plan to all as there was a lot of anxiety around the volatility and I wanted to do my part to alleviate some of this. This is one time bit to help other traders. But do get on the email list below to get upto 5 such posts exclusively every week. Feel free to share with fellow traders who may also be wandering what’s next.
So what is next?
The auction today left a feeling of being incomplete for me. I thought the sell off was wanting to devour more and more lows but could not quite get there. At least not today’s session.
What makes it a little bit more complicated is this area has a lot of prior support from November time frame and could chop me out if played clumsily.
I could do two things..
I think as long as we stay now below 4717-4719, may be this leads to more sell off without a significant retracement. So I guess if we open below 4717/4719, I want to lean on bearish side with eventual retest of 4657, may be even 4640 and let the market make up it’s mind then and there for the next 200 points.
If we open or bid above 4719, especially in the IB period, I think I want to look for sell the rips, but on higher ground, like 4758-4761. This will potentially target much lower prices around 4610-4613 as the market gathers more energy.
Overall, I need to observe the orderflow for next couple of sessions, however in this moment in time, I am feeling fairly bearish for a test of 4500-4600 eventually once/if we start testing and closing below that 4657. This is void if we start closing above my 4717 on daily time frame. I like to have all scenarios documented for my self, just in case, so I can be nimble.
Emini S&P500 traded 4695 last at the time of this publication.
Couple other notes on related markets:
I am always on lookout for names I can buy once things start to cool off, I am looking for any stocks with relative strength and couldn’t help but notice AMZN and $FB performing rather ok when compared to their peers.
Obviously , I need to be cognizant of how far off can S&P500 and QQQ Nasdaq sell off go, I mean for all I know , there could be another 5-7% of sell off in next few weeks, so that takes us 3100-3125 in AMAZON, I think it translates to 307-310 for Facebook. At time of this post, they traded 3290 and 323 respectively.
Paypal I was not happy with this stock at all yesterday at 194 and it dropped below 186 again. More pain comes I think. Visa, my stock, on the other hand, look at it! All round good performance even today, compared to the sell off!
BTW how about those TSLA uninformed bulls at 1200. Despite repeated warnings, they chose to ignore and get in at 1210, the stock is now down 12% in 2 days! Down 130 handles! Solid sell activity.
Yesterday was yet another day to redeem at 1150 when we sent the “Slim LVN” profile in my Daily Newsletter. Did they listen?
Check this link if you have no already to my plan from yesterday: January 5 Plan TSLA Bear
Hopefully this made sense.
This is it from me for now. Feel free to share and retweet this plan if these kind of posts help you. Subscribe to stay in the loop whenever a new post is published !
~ Tic 🍀
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. Reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms.
Great information. Much appreciated.
By the way thanks for ES levels. I just tested puts on SPX as soon as 4771 broke after Fed. Played small but should have loaded more. could be 1.8$ to 55$. Sad sold at 12$ kept on rolling. Thanks a bunch. Love it