Traders:
It is Just past the Closing Bell 🔔 , I have started preparing for my trading tomorrow.
I have been documenting my thoughts and levels in this sub-stack journal as this helps me stay focussed through the day.
I am happy to share my notes with other traders like your self . But please keep in mind this is simply my personal blog and opinion on stuff. Market can and will do any thing at any time without any warnings ⚠️!
As always, before I hypothesize for the next day, I like to document what went well and what did not go as planned for the current session. Let us dive into today’s plan and see how it fared. Here is the link to my plan for today: 11/1/21 for those who didn’t get a chance to review earlier.
A) Session recap:
Coming into the session, I expected 4585-4590 to provide some support if we opened above it. See below excerpt from the trade plan dated 11/1/21:
Friday close was right above 4600 round number at 4603 and right beneath it is 4590 a multi day high. Given a lukewarm open on Sunday night, and given we still open above it in RTH (Regular Trading Hours), this level may offer at least some initial support, if tested. I will prefer 4585 as the support a little lower than 4590 as it was the weekly VAH (Value Area High) . The downside of-course is it may not fill if S&P500 took off 🚀 at the opening 🛎 bell.
This is exactly how it went down. Shortly after the open today, we drifted down into this support area. This area provided not one but two bounces , each of about 15 handles.
The 2nd bounce came pretty late in the day and by then I was expecting that the lows will break . This assumption was due to having observed formation of a double distribution in the session ( a session with 2 distinct bulges).. However that did not happen. Sellers were thwarted at 4590 once again, closing the day near 4605.
Overall, 4590 provided plenty of bounces throughout the day.
I was also watching a couple of earnings today. While I was negative on AMC at 35, I expected CAR to do well at 173. At time of this blog, AMC is unchanged , but CAR is now up 6 % after hours , trading right now at 182.
I have also been quite constructive on GME . In fact I was the first one to give this at sub 4 dollars last year during the lockdowns before it just exploded. I have been reiterating the strength in this stock this past week and it just crossed 200 dollars at time of publication of this blog. See below: Tic Toc GME
B) Market Generated Information: the session today was a low volume churn and I did not get a chance to observe a lot of inflection points. However, I noticed a few things which I will document below before leveraging it in the following section C to build some high probability (hopefully! ) price scenarios:
Overnight GLOBEX highs were 4620. These highs were not touched all day in the RTH (Regular trading hours) session.
Shortly after the opening bell, range extension occurred, stopping only at my pivot 4588 from last week.
We formed a double distribution day but were not able to break the lows and in fact bid up in last one hour to close near the highs.
Indecisive price-candle right at the highs of recent move, with significantly less volume compared to the average volume (1 Million vs 1.5 Million lots). See Figure A.
Figure A: Indecision at higher prices on lower volumes.
This is factual information about the market, generated by the market itself. We should not ignore this and aim to purpose this for our preparation for next day.
C) Tomorrow: using A and B from above, here are few scenarios I will be looking at tomorrow.
There may be a tendency of the market to revisit session lows from today at 4585-4590 to explore what’s “out there”. IF this expedition succeeds in breaking the session LOD (Low of the day) from today, next order flow support is at 4560.
If however, the session lows are not visited in the Initial Balance (IB) period tomorrow , I will consider that as a continuation scenario from today, expecting a retest of 4620-4630. IB period is the first hour of cash 💰 open.
At time of this publication, S&P500 Emini bid 4606.
Any intraday updates to this post, prior to RTH open will be provided in my Telegram as that platform is more suited for rapid dissemination compared to other formats. Here is a link to the channel : Link to the channel
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D) Summary:
A distributed day with good support at Tic Toc 4590 order flow level, followed by sharp rally in last half an hour.
Daily time frame pricing showing signs of exhaustion. Current expectation is the RTH session lows 4585-4590 may be revisited before the next larger move.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. You may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. Reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms.
It's now only reading and understanding your easy explanation for in depth market, rest everything is noise.
$CAR nice call. Halt UP 172>242