Daily Plan 9.7.23
Hey guys-
The action today was mostly around the very strong services sector price gains which a blockbuster Services PMI this AM. This, along with strong action in Oil on backs of the Saudi/Russia led oil production cuts raised specter of more ongoing rate hikes from this FED.
Consequently, we opened a couple of points under 4500. Could not even peek above it and sold down to my Scenario 2 target from last night.
Once this target was achieved, this was low of the session and we rallied back to over 4470 and closed the day there.
In TSLA, that 260 level again proved formidable as we sold down quite heavily into 245 area. This was however promptly bought back to close the session near 251 on Tesla.
Levels for tomorrow
4460/4463 will be my key level. This level has been a problem child for the bears of late and it may translate to 15300 in the NQ.
In related markets, a lot of heartburn for newly minted bulls has been due to the dollar strength. This market really believes this FED will do more rate hikes.
I personally do not think so. I do not think there will be any more rate hikes by this FED.
Now I am a little suspect of this strength in services PMI, whereas I believe in manufacturing PMI increase as I have first hand seen lot of manufacturing activity pick up in the MidWest. This is generally positive for some of the industries which I am watching- I will be sharing these over the weekend.
Either way I do not think this FED will be in a position to keep hiking rates further. I think this fear should not be a reason for dollar strength, though there may be other reasons like geopolitics.
Scenario 1: I think as long as 4460 holds, we could still see 4500 retested. A break of 4500 may target 4532.
Scenario 2: For further bearish raid into 4410, the bears IMO need to take out 4460.
If you are a longer term bear, I think you need to see a couple of Daily closes below 4400.
On TSLA, see my note from last night. As long as this key level holds which was shared last night, I do think we can retest 280 on this.
On AAPL, I do not have a strong st view right now. However, I find it intriguing their pricing strategy is exactly opposite that of TSLA.
They are based on several reports, increasing price of some models of iPhones set to be released next Tuesday by as much as 100 dollars.
Some rumors even put a new iPhone model priced above 2000 dollars.
iPhone itself is a stale product compared to the newness of a TSLA car. I think this is a risky move ahead of slowdown for AAPL but technical levels still have some support for AAPL. The general market may have a hard time if AAPL begins slipping so I think if you are a SPY bull, you want to see AAPL remain supported here near 180.
~toc
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of Ninja Trader, FinViz, Think or Swim, and/or Jigsaw. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors’ IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.