Daily Plan 9.28.23

Hey-

So from last night, 4330 remained a formidable level, we were not able to do much damage above it at all. May be half a dozen handles max.

On the downside, we did sell down into 4290 and then some more. However, at the lows of the day, there was a very violent reaction.

All of day’s losses were reversed within minutes. The day closed about 10 dollars below 4330.

The action today underscores the treacherous nature of these markets when the primary trend has not yet become entirely clear. A lot of guys will start the day with strong bullish or bearish bias, but the market has been balancing during the RTH session this past week or so, even though it seems we are one time framing down.

Right below us here around 4250-4300, you have folks who are stuck in shorts from earlier in the year.

Above us you have folks who day dreamed new all time highs.

This is a very tricky zone and I do not see it get resolved unless we break out of this some how.

My primary thinking right now has not yet changed from what I said in the weekly plan.

Based on close-to-close volatility, we are barely 8-9 dollars from 4330. If you are a bear here at the lows, you want to pull away from 4330 convincingly - like 60-70 handles or more.

Unless we see a weekly close here below 4330, I think we will resolve this by closing come gaps near 4450-4500 zone. At time of this post we last traded 4320.

With the US tech stocks, this has been an enigma - whenever a crisis hits, in recent months, I have seen this more than once. The US tech stocks do tend to act as flight to safety. Yes, hard to believe.

My levels for tomorrow

Scenario 1: If you are a bull, you do not want to give an opportunity to try an AM rally, fail and drop into 4280. To avoid this, I think you want to see bids clear 4340 comfortably and then trade 4372 shortly thereafter.