Daily Plan 9/16 '22
Folks-
What we see is a very unusual profile today with several HVN but not really going anywhere in particular on the day. Chart A below.
Some of this may just be the Monthly OPEX. Some of this may be the unusual action in TSLA stock today.
From my plan last night, the support did come at the open at around 3940 from 3930/3946 range and we rallied up to almost 3980 resistance.
At this point we found sellers, sold down again below 3930. Rallied again. Sold down again.
Little frustrating day to trade especially if you are buying near the range high and selling near the range low.
Overall, a good day for some of my bearish bias names like ADBE which just got clobbered today, the stock was finished. Down 17% on the day.
Note this one I had shared at 400 as bearish name and today it closed near 300.
From my weekly plan , FREY was another good play which rose about 6% today.
Here is the link to my weekly plan.
Here is the link to the Daily Plan.
What threw a little bit of wrinkle in S&P500 downside move was the action in TSLA. This is a very cultish stock followed by much retail. The retail is known to buy this stock based on no other factor but just the tweets by the CEO.
I like TSLA - do not get me wrong. However, I will pass this opportunity to buy the stock at 310 just because of tweet by the CEO showing a woman wearing skimpy clothing. I will warm up to TSLA at 180 area. This is not to say it will get there- this is just to say I am personally not at all comfortable paying 310 for TSLA in this backdrop. I will wait. If I miss it, then so be it.
Based on my weekly levels, I will not warm up to TSLA unless it were to close above that 310.
My levels for tomorrow:
My key level for tomorrow will be 3950.
Scenario 1: 3950 will be my key level for tomorrow and if retested could see weakness develop in the market for a retest of 3900 followed by 3880.
Scenario 2: Offers or an open below 3880 may lead to a retest of 3846 OrderFlow Level.
Scenario 3: With AAPL above 155, TSLA above 310 and S&P500 Emini above 3950, we may see another test of 3980 OrderFlow Level.
We closed near 3925 on the Emini S&P500 today.
From a longer term perspective in the Emini, we have now closed below 3980 multiple times. This is in line with the expectation for stronger than expected CPI. The bears have done a great job and the bulls need to wrestle this 3980 level from the bulls else they are looking at 3720 key OrderFlow level that can unleash significant volatility.
On a side note, keep an eye on EURAUD currency pair. This is now above 1.485 level I shared this morning and things can escalate in Emini if this crossed 1.5.
AUD is the carry currency globally and generally I view EURAUD as risk-on /risk-off pair. In general a strong EURAUD indicates to me risk-off. This is an important indicator for me.
There will not be a plan tomorrow, however I will be back with much more and updates on Oil, Gold etc in my Weekly newsletter on Sunday. Stay tuned and be nimble.
~ Tic
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Hi Tic from vacationBrian
3840/383 here we come :) I think we see bounce there