Daily Plan 9.15.23
Hey -
Primary expectations today was that we can see softness today if AAPL broke 172-173 and if we remained below 4540.
We opened above 4540 and quickly sold down a 10 points or so. It is here that I sent this chat below.
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This was a good call as we rallied sharply higher after my chat and we traded 4560. Indeed very good call.
A couple of guys this AM said to me that I was calling for seller dominance last night and here in the AM I am saying its a good open.
Look the markets are very dynamic. The reason for this that a lot of folks do not understand is that the markets are ruled by order flow. When you are a chart trader, your world is mostly charts, lines, indictors etc. Those things do not change as the underlying order flow changes. Orderflow is alive, it is changing every second compared with indicators which are static. They do not update! They are history!
In the morning when we open for business, folks will buy and sell. This will show up on the tape. Now when we are up and we can see that the order flow is clearly showing that we can rally, we can either close our eyes and remain bearish or we can react to the bullish order flow. I chose latter. I really do not think I should have to explain this but I really do want to share how I feel about this topic. I am not a chart based trader and I look at market in a very dynamic way which means I can also change on a dime. It is what it is.
Chat is more real time than the daily plan. Daily Plan is based on the levels from today. The chat is based on the tape reading from tomorrow. Both are important and are included at no extra cost to subscribers.
Levels for tomorrow
Let us look for some clues hidden in related markets if we can glean any.
Let us look at the bonds and dollar.
My current thinking now is that this FED will react due to the inflationary data this week. I had predicted this months ago. Expectation for next week’s FOMC is that the FED will not raise and rates will stay at 5.5%. I think given this week’s data, the FED may end up surprising every one and raise instead and I think this is why DXY has been solid and TLT has been stinking. Remember, the US treasury and notes market is extremely large when compared to the S&P500 and Nasdaq market and I do not want to ignore the message it is sending.
If the FED indeed raises rates, I think it could be pretty bad for risk on but I think a dip if one comes in oil to 80-82 could be bought.
We also have quad witch tomorrow which should add to exceptional volatility IMO.
With this said below is my key level for tomorrow: