Daily Plan 8.22.23
Pretty cut and dry session where we could not even do much business below Friday’s close and did not do any trading below my Friday levels at all! Almost 0 lots traded below this key level.
Ultimately we rallied about 50 points to close the session right above 4400.
Not only emini did well today, most of the names I shared last night rallied today handsomely.
For instance, once my 210 target was met, TSLA had a nice rally from the over sold lows. I had expected this action and I thought it is possible we could run onto 230-240 again. Today we closed near 231. I think for TSLA to eke out more gains here, we need to see the general market clear 4420 tomorrow fairly early on in session or we may drop towards 220. So I had expected this action in TSLA today fully, and it played out as I thought it will. What is next for TSLA is this 240 level. I think if it clears it, it could rally more into 265. If however it does not clear 240, I think we may fall towards 200 on the auto maker.
CCJ had an amazing day.
SQ, COIN, AMZN etc all did fairly well on the session.
So is the worst behind us and we are clear for take off?
I do think this close above 4400 is a good close that favors the swing time frame bulls.
However I like to see a second close above 4400 here to confirm. Another back to back close here above 4400 I think will confirm that we could retest 4500 next as part of 2 day bottoming template. There are a couple of things that give me a pause to unabashedly join the bull party-
Dollar strength today
Bond weakness
Oil weakness
I would have loved to instead see this today (if I was a bull) -
Dollar weakness
Bond rally
Oil strength
With this said, my key level tomorrow will be 4410/4420.
Scenario 1: I think if the IB session were to close below 4410 in the morning tomorrow, we could retest 4370-4380.
Scenario 2: With an IB close above 4420, we could target 4444.
If we are going to rally tomorrow, I like to see this happen early on in the session within first hour or so (IB), and clear the 4420 area and hold it.
If we can not do this, I think we could fall back into 4360 area. We are now trading around 4420.
A lot of risk on tone today was due to the China cutting its rates last night for the 1 year loans, though the 5 years were left alone- for now. There is barely any news tomorrow and overnight.
~ Toc
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of Ninja Trader, FinViz, Think or Swim, and/or Jigsaw. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors’ IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.