Daily Plan 7/7/23
Hey folks -
Both my weekly level on the ES Emini and the levels from last night proved to be potent levels for the session today.
We rapidly sold off from that 4495 smack into my 4420 before rallying towards end of the day and closing the session near 4450.
Really not much activity below 4420 or above 4495- demonstrating the capability of OrderFlow levels when volatility perks up. So as soon as liquidity does return we see about 75 points shaved off rather quickly which was a slow grind of many sessions going up. Such is volatility! Overall a good tradable session for both sides in my view.
This just underscores what I have been saying about methodologies in general - trading is not 9-5 job! It is not predictable. Some days are better than others and many times more volatile it gets, better it is for everyone. Market in general has not been volatile in last many months and it has led to a lot of folks assuming this is the new normal.
On the NQ side, my weekly expectation was there was something at 15200 and I had expected this to be in the cross hairs again at 15350. This was also the right call as we slid below that 15200 once again.
The weakness really started with the release of that red hot ADP data that showed very strong private sector job growth - rekindling the bets for further rate hikes.
This puts into play a strong NFP number tomorrow as well.
My levels for tomorrow
My levels tomorrow will be 4460 and 4420.
Scenario 1: I expect 4460 to be resistance to target 4420.
Scenario 2: A break of 4420 may lead to a test of 4390 area.
So far as of the auction today, the market remains well defined within the prior two weekly levels which generally coincide with 4390 and 4495 with a stop over around 4420. Any one expecting a larger move I think will like to see us take these out first. This 4495 level was actually shared by me first on June 18th- 20 days ago and since then it has held on its own! Such are the OrderFlow levels!
RIVN
Despite the swoon in general markets today, RIVIN shared by me last night was a star today and rose about 5%. Tremendous stock!
META
META was in news today all day - for right or wrong reasons ! I personally think slightly more competition in a text based social media like Twitter is not a bad idea and is good for everyone!
I am happy about Threads as it leads to more competition and more competitions is always good for every one !
I do not see anything super exciting here right now in META but I would say IF it were to dip into 270 area it may be a decent move into 285-290. Please do read all if statements that I use :)
Volatility
Interesting move in VIX- large rally only to give a lot of it back later in the day.
My key level on VIX will be around 15.5-16. It is now 16.2.
I think if 15.5 holds on VIX, we could see it rally higher and this may keep a lid on the ES (SPX) and QQQ as well!
This is it for now.
Have a great one!
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! Tic Toc
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