Daily Plan 7/26/23
Hey guys -
From the ES session, my key level from last night was the resistance overnight but based on my analysis of the overnight order flow, about half an hour before the cash session opened, I sent below chat on Substack.
This was a good call as we did not dip below 4580 at all and traded up to 4610 area later in the day to close at 4603. This was an intraday level call and for the weekly levels to be void or hold, I want to see another day’s close here above 4590.
Note every one should have access to these chat room. You simply need to install the Substack app and turn on the notifications. Click the below link to receive updates like the one above as many guys entered put at open today.
Some other highlights of the day were the tech earnings from the giants such as MSFT, GOOG, SNAP and META.
With the exception of GOOG, the market response to the other big tech earnings was not so positive.
Addressing SNAP first, as I noted in my newsletter last week, the C suite on this company is just extremely pessimistic. This is a thing now- the stock drops 15-20 % every single ER call from last 3 quarters or so. This time their results were not that bad, yet the stock fell 17%. Regardless, I think this stock has seen a bottom near 8 bucks and I will think if this 10 holds, we could actually see a bounce back to 12-13 later.
META rose about 1.7% to close right below a key level which I think is important here at 303-304. I think the META bulls need to clear this area to see higher prices else we could fall back to 280s.
The market has been selective about who to reward this earnings season for AI and who not to. And the market decided not to reward MSFT as much as it would like to.
It had lukewarm results and the stock was unchanged over the earnings. These AI generated profits are too early to show up in any of these ER calls with the exception of NVDA and AMD amongst a handful.
With respect to GOOG, they did have a solid quarter. The stock rose about 6% and is now trading near this 130 level. This 130 level is a major level going back to the pre split days and I think the bulls need to clear it out to see higher prices , else we could revisit 115s.
My levels for tomorrow
My key levels for tomorrow will be 4603-4605. The bulls need to retain and build value area above this level for further advance else we may fall to below support levels.
With the FOMC tomorrow, this level may cap the bullish advance for a test of 4560.
4560, if this gives up could target 4510-4520 area.
Updates if any may be issued on Substack chat, only for subscribers.
Outside of these, some of my value ideas continue to do extremely well. A few of these recently shared -
JPM trades almost 160, up about 20 bucks from 140 area.
UNH trades about 510 shared around 450.
WMT shared around 135 trades 160+.
MMM trades above 110 shared sub 100.
XOM and OXY continue to bounce off orderflow levels and could break out of recent range.
On a side note, Emini S&P500 has just been harder to trade these few months. This is in context of intraday moves. Ideally I like to see 20-30 point zig zag moves, both up and down, it really does not matter for me as I am directionally agnostic.
However, in past few months, this has dried up. We are talking about 10-20 point moves in all day! Often one way slog up or down. How have some of the folks I spoken to dealt with this? Some have changed their expected target hit time frame from 15 minutes to 4 hours. Some have lowered the expected move