Daily Plan 7.18.24
Hey -
I want to kick off the post with a word about the randomness in markets and how we have to be aware of attractive risk to reward levels rather than randomly chase price action.
The first example is that of the likes of SEMI stocks like ASML and TSM.
These two had a nasty day today, dropping 12 and 8% respectively. Now someone may ask what happened? Why all of a sudden a multi billion dollar company drops 12% when all was well and good only 2 sessions ago?
You could invent any number of reasons - potential trade wars, Presidential candidates tweeting about tariffs whatever suits the narrative, the news channels will amplify it. It does not mean anything.
The simple answer is the Miss Market did not like those prices and the market auctioned off lower to attract buyers. This is why in my methodology that I share here on a daily basis, I like to share stocks when they are in accumulation zone. I do not like stocks in Mark up phase or in distribution phase or even mark down phase. These are all 4 distinct phases of market and I like stocks when they are in accumulation phase. Simple. This means there are weeks and months when nothing moves. And that is ok.
So for instance, I shared IWM support at 207 with a target of 225. If you did not had this level, then you followed CNBC to buy IWM at 225! Me and TV analysts are two extremely different methodologies.
Anyways, so in the S&P500 Emini today, we had a very robust auction. The fact is both the low of the week and the high of the week are in between my two levels shared almost 4 days ago on Sunday. These 2 levels have encapsulated the market perfectly.
Not only the weekly auction but also the daily auction, every single day of this week has been between the 2 to 3 levels I share on a daily basis - and today was no exception.
Levels for tomorrow
I want to see the Tic TOP indicator firm up tomorrow to the tune of 3% or more, if I am a bull. We are now trading 5650 at time of this post.
If you are new to the Tic TOP concept, please go thru this post. This is an important post for intraday traders. You do not wanna miss it.
Key level tomorrow will be 5607 and 5663/5667.
Unless Tic TOP were to firm up around 2-3% or more, and we were able to take out 5667 on the upside, this level may present resistance for a move lower into 5630s.
If we are able to break 5630 and hold it, then next support may come in near 5600-5607.
Outside of this, if you notice, I have not yet shared a ton of other bullish ideas since yesterday. This is because I want to see the market firm up. Now this may all change tonight. This may change tomorrow or this may change a year from now- I do not know when but I know once the general market firms up, I am going to have a ton of ideas on the bullish side like PLTR and GOOG which are sitting on my radar, waiting for a move. However if we enter a general bear market, most of my ideas shared will be in form of PUTS. Stay tuned!
~ tic
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