Daily Plan 6/29/23
Traders-
This was a very decent day for my levels and some of my ideas shared previously.
For instance:
LYFT stock rallied about 7% today. It is now up about 30% from where I thought we had bottomed on this.
GME stock was today up more than 6%. It is now up more than 25% from where I thought this stock had bottomed in the mid term.
CVNA stock is a gift that keeps giving for the CVNA bulls! What an amazing stock this is! I had originally shared my bullish bias on this at 3 dollars. However on recent days I had shared multiple levels which I thought could be support including 11 and 18-20 dollars. Today this stock was up 16%. I think it is now setting up for climactic action in CVNA!
U was up another 4-5% today. Hard to believe it was only shared on Sunday I think at 36/37 and it is now approaching 45 already!
Many many more; too numerous to list all here, like PLTR 0.00%↑ . Will share in the Weekly Plan.
Folks, as many of you know I don’t like to talk about execution as it is personal. However, I love reviewing systems... for the record, if anyone ever wants to share with me and discuss a trading system, any trading system, I would love to! I love systems development and testing. It’s a passion!
Now having said that I will tell you what is not execution or a system in my mind .
A system can be anything - I know guys who use positions of planets to make trades . I use my self only the level 2 and price action to make my calls. I have folks who use macro, some who use astrologer to make trades. That’s all fine with me as long as there is risk management built into the system.
To have no line in sand (LIS) is not a system. To trade without stop is not a system. When you trade without a stop, you are essentially saying you are 100% certain this particular trade is going to work. With all due respect, this sounds ridiculous frankly! All pure price action based systems therefore I think need a robust LIS.
Now I am not saying I use hard stop - I don’t .
But I always have a mental stop when I get out, whether I like it or hate it. Over many years, I have figured out that if I lose a small percentage today, I can make it all back tomorrow. If I have a catastrophic loss of 30-40% or more, then I am finished. So this is why I think getting out at a loss when loss is small is very nice compared to not taking a loss. I am talking about intraday context here at the moment.
For example - If S&P500 moves 3-4 points in my chosen time frame, and it’s gone 20 points against me , believe me I am not in that trade any more.
System design should consider the average move of my chosen market in my chosen time frame and the stop should be about half or about 100% of the average move not more than that IMO (in my opinion). Today was a perfect example of this!
Though the 2 levels I shared last night were the exact high and low of the day, the day it self was very directionless.
In NQ alone, we saw multiple sell offs from my 15100 and 15150 level. Then we saw a massive sell off from 15200 level. Then once 15150 broke, we saw the level support 2 50 point zippers. These are all great levels - but without execution they are a naught!
Read my post on Tic TOP, Market Profile and Market Internals to see how I myself gauge the intraday momentum! Many of they are free!
I think many of us spend a lot of time on being right a lot. The search for more accuracy is never ending. I think it is better for me to find a system that works half the time but wins twice as large than when wrong. If I have such a system, I throw a couple of points at it and see if it is gonna stick or not. Really nothing more to it.
My levels for tomorrow
Event wise, not seeing much tomorrow except the Powell presser and the Friday Core PCE is a big one. Seasonally, July is supposed to be good for the NQ. Last year in July it gained 12%. Then there are competing flows from the quarter and half year end this Friday. So could be a choppy couple of days ahead.
My key levels will remain 15200 and 4430 on NQ and ES.
PINS
Back when at 18 dollars I had called the PINS stock to have bottomed and a potential M&A candidate. I think if it holds the gap to 25 on pullback it may be supported. It is now 28.
CVNA
CVNA is now 28. I think it is headed for a climactic action and if we see a test of 34-36, it may carve out a climactic high. I will move my LIS on this now to 25-25.5.
What is LIS? LIS for me is a key level. It means if the level gets taken out, I was wrong. Nothing more to it. For instance in CVNA if 25 breaks, I am not bullish on this any more. I am not thinking but only a day ago it was 28 and now it is 22!
GNRC
I had called for a bottom on GNRC at 90-100 dollars earlier in Spring. This stock had suffered a lot due to green politics but it is now up quite handsomely and it is now trading near 150 dollars. This underscores these are not some short term calls - the calls based on macro and fundamentals can take many months to fruition.
Scenario 1: Bulls want to clear 4430 and want the level to hold to target 4455.
Scenario 2: If the bulls can not take out 4430, then I think they can see us trade down to 4390-4400 again.
This is it folks. Have a great weekend and make sure you do not lose access before the upcoming price hikes. Subscribe now to help the channel grow.
~ Toc
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