Daily Plan 6/13/2023
I am Bullish now?
Hey folks -
From last night’s levels, the market remained well capped by 4360 at the time of this post (in other words, 4325 remained a resistance for those on June).
Note the contract will stop trading this week, and everyone should be on September by now.
Another idea I shared last night for the short term was CVNA support near 18/19. This stock was up about 10% at the time of this post.
Some other names like GME, ZM, INTC, AVGO rose about 5% on the day.
My levels for tomorrow
Tomorrow is the CPI data that comes in at 730 AM CST.
I am expecting a drop in headline CPI number tomorrow because we will drop off the May 2022 data point from calculation tomorrow - if you recall, the May data last year saw a large bump in CPI due to a spike in gas and groceries, and dropping that from the math tomorrow could lead to a lower CPI number. This should slightly lower the headline number but keep the core PCE component relatively stable.
My key level for tomorrow will be 4367-4370.
Scenario 1: If we open above this and remain above this we may test 4392.
Scenario 2: If we open and remain below this level, we may test 4320-4325.
Longer term, as discussed last night, I am a bigger fan of value-type names at these levels. I know value is barely changed on the year, whereas growth is now up more than 25%, but I think that is not necessarily bad for me if I am a value bull for the next few years. I will remain a value bull for the foreseeable future. Value is up a measly 10-15% from its 2022 lows, contrasting with 40% for something like QQQ. This is a longer-term view (1-2 years +).
In some other short-term names, I am keeping an eye on SABR.
I think as long as three holds, we could test 5-6+ on it.
A quick note about CVNA…
I think this has been a very interesting name, with its recent rally from about 3 to almost 30 and then this swoon from nearly 30 to sub-20.
The closest thing that comes to my mind to this is HOOD. HOOD is also a well-shorted stock, and it is now trading near 9 bucks. I think if it holds 7-9 dollar support, I will not be surprised if it also did something like CVNA with respect to the short squeeze.
~ Tic
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