Daily Plan 6/10 '22

Folks-

This was yet another great day for the orderflow and my levels, despite the chop and the market really not moving a whole lot at the time of this post.

We opened below 4100 LIS with AAPL below 147 and EURAUD above 1.5 , I shared the 4110 intraday orderflow level which I thought will cap the bullish rallies.

And it did.

4110 at time of this post has held remarkably well and at one point we sold down into 4080. It seems at this point it will do yet another 30 points off 4110 as we are now trading 4088.

Technically for the trend traders, the situation looks really bad and choppy. See below. This is yet again one of the longer balancing acts that the S&P500 is doing and once resolved should lead to a large move out of this consolidation.

If you don’t have correct levels, if you don’t have the correct context, correct tools like the Tic TOP you are simply getting chopped left and right. Luckily for orderflow these levels have been solid, whether that was 4151 on Tuesday or that 4110 today. 

Now today alone 4110 level was key resistance for total 60 handles move down on a day where the session move was about 40 points as of the time of this post.

SPY CHOP FEST

Now with the CPI on tap tomorrow, with AAPL here about to close below 147, and with TSLA with a little luck close below that 730, I think we may be able to get out of this balance area sooner than later. The great thing about these levels is these are holding quite well despite being weeks old- like that TSLA 766 again today. These levels are shared exclusively only with the folks here in the Substack so don’t forget to book mark them on your charts if those happen to be the markets you trade.

For tomorrow, here are-key things I will be watching:

1. I think if AAPL remains below 147 and if TSLA remains below 730, Emini may remain below 4100.

2. Ideally I want to see a test of 4040 and then no close above 4100 thereafter for a test of 3950 next week before the FOMC

Scenario 1:

1. With AAPL below 147, TSLA below 730 and Emini below 4100, I would like to remain bearish intraday for a test of 4040.

Scenario 2:

1. I think if TSLA manages to remain bid above 730 and if AAPL were to take back 147, we may see emini break out of 4100 and trade recent highs at 4160.

At time of this post Emini S&P500 has last traded 4084.

Updates if any to this plan will be shared on my Twitter or Telegram in the AM. Stay tuned.

Further reading, longer term view

If you enjoy my context and levels, feel free to share this letter with other traders, like your self.

As promised, a small blurb about the whole Target inventory mark downs and why it is not deflationary or bullish..

What Target saga shows is that the customer is not buying high priced items any more and this is not a good sign to begin with.

Now with Target being the first one in line to get rid of their stuff..it means they will now mark up items like Food and every day items like clothings for kids.

This is not going to be deflationary, if any thing this is going to be even more inflationary. So not sure why everyone read this news to be bullish, I thought it was quite bearish when you have the relatively affluent Target customer not splurging on these expensive items like big screen TV. Big screen TV in the US are the epitome of easy money spending and when you don’t have that, I would say the economy may be in real trouble. Wanted to share my 2 cents on this as many folks asked me what I thought of it..

~ Tic Tic

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