Daily Plan 5.15.24
Hey traders-
The primary level yesterday for the cash session was 5240. The expectation was to see support come in if tested and remained above this level, for a test of 5273.
This was indeed the case as market came to test this level atleast 4 times and failed every time before pushing higher into 5273 towards end of the day.
Background of the move was also the PPI data and the FED commentary. While PPI came is fairly hot at 0.5%, the previous months revisions came in lower at -0.1%.
Then you had the US FED Chair Powell deny that he is even thinking about a rate hike as the next FED policy. For some reason the markets liked this. Do note that the inflation data in 2024 has been fairly sticky as compared to 2023, and the US FED has been infact quite hawkish compared to most of 2023 when it was singing a different tone.
I am pricing in the CPI near 0.3%. This keeps annualized rate around 4%, still far away from the 2% goal. This could surprise on the upside when you consider recent uptick and brouhaha over junk food price hikes due to some states raising fast food wages to $20 an hour or so.
In addition to this we also saw the GME squeeze break apart. I sent a chat message in my Substack not to FOMO into GME when it was at 69-80 bucks! I cautioned that we may drop back into 38-43 before some decent support is found. This squeeze did falter and we fell all the way back to 48 at time of this post.
Not only this, we also saw PLTR trade into 22 bucks. I turned bullish on this near 20 bucks and this was solid action in this stock within a couple of sessions. Other such calls?
CELH finally cleared 92.
ZYN maker Phillips Morris PM 0.00%↑ finally clears 100. We shared this at 89 bucks.
MU clears 125. Frankly too many to list them all here.
All shared with subs here in the room.
Levels for tomorrow
My key level will remain 5240. We are now trading near 5273. These levels are from Emini June product.
Scenario 1: The bears need to break below 5230 and stay there on the Daily time frames to make a move towards recent lows at 5050. Until this happens, 5230-5240 could remain supported for a move back into 5273, if tested.
Scenario 2: The bulls will be happy with this action but keep in mind, at time of this post we are barely 1.25% above a key level 5211. This is all good but these gains have to solidify and the bulls need to clear 5293-5300 to be completely out of the woods and push into new highs. I will say another Daily close here below 5273 could retest 5230s.
~ tic
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of Ninja Trader, FinViz, Think or Swim, and/or Jigsaw. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors’ IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.