Daily Plan 4.4.24
Hey folks-
Primary expectation was to see support come in on any dips today with the edge case around 5275.
This was a good call as the session remained again between these two levels for most of the overnight and the cash session. This was reiterated last night with my call in Dollar which I expected to remain soft and hence provide a bid to the stocks. Other than this, massive rallies in Oil, Oil stocks, Gold and Silver, all of which have been shared here with you here in the substack. On top of this, believe it or not, TSLA also eked out a Green Day, despite all the hostility against it.
Now what is next tomorrow?
Big day tomorrow with the NFP numbers.
5256-5260 may be key tomorrow. We are now trading about 5270.
Scenario 1: If I am a bull, I like to see more balancing here between 5256 and 5270, to then break this range and trade recent highs near 5310. The levels are for Emini June.
Scenario 2: If we are able to break 5256 AND stay below it in intraday time frames, I favor buyers stepping in at 5223-5226. It is very important for the bears here to close below this whole weekly level that I shared on Saturday. Refer to the weekly post. If bears cannot achieve this, I think we could retest some of the recent highs near 5310.
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What do you get with this membership? You get names like MNMD, BEFORE the moves happen, not in hindsight. See below. Up 20% today alone. Now $12.
On a side note, regular readers will know I became a bull on Oil at 67 when most were very bearish expecting $30.
Oil is $86 now (WTI). As it approaches 87, I will like to see a little bit of cool down below 81-83. LIS on this will be around 87-87.4. Now while I remain long term constructive on oil, there is a major challenge for oil as I see it and I will try to simplify it a bit, though it is very complicated.
Issue with Oil comes down to the Biden’s potential issues with reelection. This is relevant even more as far as the conflict in Israel goes. Biden handling of Israel and Palestine conflict is not popular even within democratic voter base and this has the potential to sway the elections in a big way. This is going to become a huge issue in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin which historically have a large Arab population which tends to vote Blue. If you lose this vote, it becomes much harder to win Michigan and Wisconsin.
On top of that, higher gas prices (it is $3.5 nationally now, having risen 20 cents in past one month alone) also present headwinds for reelection. This presents a double whammy for oil in the short term. Most of my thesis around Oil is based on outcome of 2024 elections.
Due to these factors, as long 87.4 holds on the WTI, I will not be surprised at some degree of softness where I see it sell down into low 80s. Now with a softer dollar and a weaker Oil, this could benefit the indices like SPX but please refer to the weekly plan for my lower LIS on the Emini SPX around 523X.
~ tic
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