Daily Plan 4.3.24
The main expectation was to see the support come in between 5230 and 5240 on the session today if we opened and remained below 5270. See below.
This was a massive call as when we opened there was a lot of demoralization due to news and other so called experts. However we had warned our folks going back several weeks about this level.
Anyways, we tested the level and rallied sharply higher to close the session near 5265.
We are very near 5270 now.
Do not forget to subscribe to receive such levels every day. With these levels you really do not need to follow a lot of furus. Just pick 2-3 quality ones and stick with them long term. It is really just noise in my own view.
Levels for tomorrow
Very interesting session in Dollar today.
It retreated from that 105 level I talked about some days ago. I think if we get a nice leg down in Dollar, it is going to light a fuse under names like Gold, Silver, Oil, Copper etc.
BTW how about that call in Silver and Gold ; >?
With TSLA, my expectation was to see support come in at 170. However their delivery numbers were quite bad.
At end of the day, I think this is priced in. I think even now if TSLA holds 160 (it is 166 now), I think it can still regain 170 and then if it takes out 182, I believe it can rally into 200. With TSLA, a lot of negative press is by design. I mean were delivery numbers not going to suck when it was selling just around 300 about a year ago? What changed?
Perception.
As far as levels go tomorrow, Dollar could be important. If we have seen a Dollar peak at 105, I think this is good for S&P500 atleast for now. While OIL still does its thing below 92-100. Once Oil clears 92, we will have a different tune to sing. Look we have to be cognizant of different markets, if we are planning ahead for longer term. What are we seeing now?
Strong oil - a negative for equities after a threshold.
2 strong rejections in Bitcoin - leading, high beta speculative name. Negative for equities.
Leading SOX stocks are weak - negative for the equities.
What is helping stocks? Rejection in Dollar at resistance. Somewhat positive. What offsets it? The insane ripper in Gold and Silver offsets it. At some point Gold begins to act as an ultimate hedge of everything- volatility, inflation, deflation, wars. Once you get there, it is not a good spot.
Yields are higher again. This shuts off credit creation in the system via new car loans, new home loans, new business loans. Very bad.
With this said, my key level tomorrow will remain 5230-5240.
Scenario 1: Dips, if any in 5230s could be bought for a retest of 5270.
Scenario 2: My edge case will be above 5270 or below 5230. I could see 5230 give up, if we give up that 105 on the Dollar to the upside. But minus that, I think we can still see some support.
~tic
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