Daily Plan 4/20/23

Hey guys-

A bunch of good calls by me starting with that call on NFLX at 333, I did not expect that price to hold the gains today and we opened near 331 but then made a beeline towards 320 to end the day.

Folks, we also saw wholesale destruction of MARA stock which I became a bear on a Weekly level of 13 dollars. That stock is now down almost 10% today alone and is now trading near 10.5. If this was not enough, FRC my stock saw a 12% upside day today alone. Massive action. All are shared here real-time.

AAL? Shared at 12.6 by me today crossed 13.6. The option I shared was 69 cents. Today it close above a dollar and 10 cents. Too many things are moving and moving as they should. Prices will have to go up for sure due to this added service of options. I have shared two so far - KMX and AAL and both have done very well. So the prices will go up but it should not impact anyone who is already subbed. They will all be grandfathered in.

On TSLA front, I have been a short-term bear on TESLA from 215. I reiterated my bearish call on the earnings at 186-192 and the stock at the time of this blog has dropped to 172.

Some of these companies have been aggressively cutting prices. TSLA has cut prices now for most popular models by half a dozen times. Their most popular car price Model Y has been cut by a third in 3 months. When companies cut prices, it means:

1. Lack of demand

2. Too much competition

With TSLA, ultimately these prices will help them finish off the competition, and long term this will be a good thing. However, in short term, this could be a headwind and we could drift down to lower levels where I will share an update with folks if I see something interesting set up.

EV cars are the future, whether you like it or not, and Tesla will play a dominant role in that industry. ICE cars will gradually be phased out and I think by 2040 the ICE cars may be a relic with high values on certain models due to their collectible status.

There is really very little macro case for some of these names. But the management teams are there to make outlandish statements and no one to stop them, they are making these outlandish claims to trap as many folks as possible in unfair prints. This is the upside and downside of powerful technology like Twitter. You can amplify a bad message and trap some folks in. This is sad at many levels. I was myself very bullish at 100, don’t get me wrong. But I lost interest at 215 and since then we have drifted down some 40 points. All shared in real-time with folks here of course.

At the open, today the popular expectation was that we will continue the overnight sell-off. A lot of folks at the open were in the put.

I sent a Substack chatroom update with my support level. As soon as I sent this chat, we rallied.

We rallied and did not stop till the resistance level I shared and then the market sold off from there to close near 4175.

These are tremendous levels. Made by OrderFlow. Nothing comparable if you ask me.

Now with the market auction today, we have entered what may be defined as the 16th or 17th day of balance.

This is a very long time to be balanced in this range of fewer than 100 dollars. Have not seen anything like this in years. Any prognosis in this sort of range becomes hard. It is a miracle with OrderFlow we can still come up with something actionable like those 2 levels today.

I will try and share some levels for tomorrow as well and if relevant, may share an update tomorrow AM in the chat room.

However, I do want to share 2 more thoughts on execution like the ones I did yesterday. It was well received by some folks who are proper traders. To make it easier for folks to read beneath the paywall, I am offering a one-time discount, applicable only today. It is one of the biggest on record. Do not let it go unused. Click below.

Before going further in this post, make sure you read my post from last night with respect to what I said about the unpredictable nature of the intraday auction. I am not sharing anything which I personally can not vouch for. In one form or another, I have been active in markets for 2 decades and this is the conclusion I have arrived at with respect to intraday action.

Daily Plan 4/19/23

Now yesterday we discussed how the markets in general are unpredictable and in short time frames could even be impossible to forecast at all.

Now are there any personality traits in a trader that can make it harder than it has to be?

Yes. 100%.

ht: Pure Tesla

I have these traits. You have these. Everyone has it. However, with practice, we can minimize some of the harmful effects of this.

Look when I lose money, there can be different reasons to lose, it is not always due to the nature of markets. In fact, it is due to my nature.

1. I could lose money because I am gambling and not following my own system or methodology.

2. I can lose money due to losing an internet connection and I could not close the trade.

3. I could lose money when I am emotionally trading and not following my own rules.

4. None of these factors above is due to not being able to predict. In fact, you could have a great system and you could still lose money due to your personality.

Can we fix this?

In some cases and it is hard but it is not going to be easy. Let me explain why.