Daily Plan 3/8/23
Hello traders-
There are 3 main aspects of an intraday trading approach in my view and each one of them is quite important:
Bias - while I believe in reacting not predicting, you still need at a basic level some directional bias else it is hard to make sense of what is going on outside of scalping time frames.
Levels - with levels, what I mean is you need to know an area or a zone where the price may find interest from buyers and/or sellers. If you do not have levels then you do not have a reference. Without a reference, we are lost. This can also be thought of as support and resistance levels.
Measure the momentum - now that I have a primary bias, and now I also have some levels or zones, I need a way to measure the momentum as we approach the levels. I call this classic Supply and Demand. If supply is heavy, level will be resistance. If demand is heavy, level will become support.
In markets you do not need more buyers than sellers or vice versa. In fact that is not even possible. You just need buyers who are more aggressive than sellers for price to go up. And you need sellers who are more aggressive than buyers for price to go down. In these type of instances, the sellers will pull offers out and the buyers will pull bids out like we saw today for the price to go down. The buyers will need more aggressive discounts (lower bids) for them to join the auction. Classic supply and demand. Auction theory.
This particular blog which is really my personal journal, on a daily basis, covers # 1 and # 2 above. Some times when I have bandwidth, I will share # 3 as well via the Chat or Twitter. Like today I did at 4040. I recognize that I am not able to share my views about # 3 every day. To address that, I want folks to be able to measure this themselves and to end, I have shared tools like Tic TOP and market internals with folks. I myself use them! See link below with all the educational info.
I am cognizant that I am not able to share # 3 above every day due to my own bandwidth, and this is why this publication is priced accordingly. I am more comfortable to read the market when it is more volatile and this is why I was able to share several updates in real time - all of them correct. Similar blogs can be 300-400 a month while blog this is a fraction of that! My goal is to reach more traders with the message of OrderFlow and to reach a wider audience I have decided to offer a one time special deal. Click the link below to avail it. This is one of the lowest prices ever and will not last.
Now back to the plan..
The plan from last night was spot on. On the weekly time frames , I had called the breakout above 4030 to be driven by “short squeeze” and I did not expect this to last due to the fact that the value area really did not move higher. See the link below and read it again. It is a good educational post.
Other than the S&P500 Emini, the below OrderFlow ideas did quite well -
AAPL sell off from about 156 50 151
VIX rally today about 6%
TSLA sell off below 190.
The best part about these was that we did barely any trading above or below my levels.
As far as the levels go for tomorrow..
The FED chair grilling (or testimony) will continue tomorrow as well. The challenge for this congress, both on the GOP side as well on the Democratic side is that how much are they willing to endure the specter of a looming recession, so close to the 2024 election cycle. This is especially true for the current admin. They do not wanna rock the boat too hard. At the same time, they are cognizant of the gas being $5 again in an election year. Pick your poison - 5 dollar gas or 5-6% unemployment? Very hard pill for these career politicians to swallow to do the right thing.
Look at this Gold chart above. Chart A.