Daily Plan 3.26.24

The session today once again brings into focus the value and accuracy of Substack levels as shared from last night.

You can pick any name and see this at work.

SMCI? Opens at 970. Does not stop all day and is now trading near 1070.

NVDA? Opens at 940, briefly tests 930s, and then a high of about 970.

Low in the emini S&P500 index? The level from last night.

DWAC? Well you know all about DWAC by now. Up 35% on the day and is now up another 10% or so after hours. Tomorrow is a big day for DWAC. Normally on such big days, the stocks end up being disappointment but DWAC (or is it DJT now) is no normal stock. I think it could have epic action tomorrow and I am not too bearish on this unless it dips below 46. DWAC remanning above 46 could be a bullish signal for the stock.

COIN? Up more than 10%.

Each one of these (except COIN) shared with folks last night in my weekly plan. Now a lot of folks were short today in DWAC, and SMCI. If only they had read the weekly posts. Do not get me wrong. I will get bearish soon too. But the difference between me and them is that I will wait for a confirmation which often can mean a small MAE versus an extremely large one. I do not like large MAE. No one should.

No one likes to work in a vacuum, and if you like to receive similar themes and levels in future, consider liking, subscribing and sharing as it goes a long way to support me in these times of censorship by big tech.

Folks, many have asked me about the Line in Sand or LIS concept. I have explained this before but I will reiterate. LIS is like a stop loss for me but I use it not as an automatic stop. I view LIS as key battleground levels. Let us say I am bullish on DWAC with LIS at 30. It means my bullish thesis is intact unless I begin to see successive closes below 30. If the stock closes below 30 on a weekly or month close, it is a significant close. I will not become bullish again on it unless I see a couple of closes now above it. In some cases, not always though, it is possible for a stock to close 5-10% below a LIS only to firm up above it and then rally 50-100% or even more. I shared this earlier but if one is stopped out 3 times at 5% every time, then a 4th move of 20% or more takes care of that and then some. Price action is not always clean. Market is an unstructured environment without the preciseness. It can be messy and LIS simply ensures that a 5% -10% loss does not turn into a 50-60% one.

Levels for tomorrow

The consumer confidence number is quite important tomorrow and should set the tone for rest of the day.

Scenario 1: If we open at or within a few handles (4-5 points) of 5270, then 5283 could be resistance for a move down into 5250s. At time of this post we are trading around 5285. Level is for June Emini.

Scenario 2: If we open quite a bit below 5270, into 5250 or so, then I will be looking for support to come in near 5240.

Additional scenarios could be shared in my chat room.

~ tic

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