Daily Plan 2.7.24
A few good calls from last night and the weekly plan.
AAPL- expectation was to see support come in at 180 for a move back into 190 which was the case today.
TSLA- last night’s post called for support to come in at 175 for a move back into 190. We came close and closed near 185.
F- from the weekly post. Expected a test of 13 dollars which was met today after hours.
PLTR- support expected at 16 dollar level. Insane action today in Palantir, the stock was up about 33% and closed near 22.
RIVN stock rally of about 4%. Low of the move? ~ $14.7.
AMZN- earnings play. Up from about 150 to 170s.
In the Emini S&P500, both high and low of the day were between the 2 levels I gave last night.
On the flip side, I expected better outcome out of SNAP. Not to be. The stock collapsed 30% at time of this post. This CEO comes up with all sort of reasons to crash the stock on earnings days. It is always something. This quarter it was how the Middle East conflict hurt SNAP’s ad business amongst its prurient user base. Simply unbelievable. This is a not the right CEO for the task and I think he should take a passive role and some one who can unlock the value in this app to come pick the baton.
As we go thru rest of this week and then the month, there are going to be some uncertainties which take center stage. Immediately speaking, we have 2 major bond auctions between tomorrow and Thursday. Next Tuesday is the CPI.
In such uncertain times, when we think of stocks and markets, most of us only think about either up or straight down.
It does not always have to be like that. There are now a days a lot of quant based, nuanced strategies which are not strictly long or short but can be considered more “market neutral” in the sense that atleast on paper, they try to eliminate as much as correlation as they can from the general market moves.
In this sense, they are very different from other ETF like SPY for instance which is mostly directional bet on the US stock market.
What are some of those?
Well there are actually quite a few but I myself like the ones below the most (due to cost and the way they are constructed). To top it off, they offer a decent yield as well.
BDMAX by BlackRock.
VMNFX by Vanguard.
The latter is cheaper of the two and is little simpler in design. BDMAX is fairly complicated. Both of them use quant strategies to make decisions. By being Market Neutral, they can be long and short at the same time so in many aspects they allow for exposure to Hedge Fund type strategies. Just wanted to share as an educational note for any one interested in these type of strategies.
By the Way...if you find the content helpful, the finest compliment I could ever receive is a referral to your family, friends and co-workers. Spread message of the tape.
Levels for tomorrow
ON Emini S&P500, I expected a test of 4980 which was met today in the cash session. On the daily auction what we have is a couple of days of exhaustion.
Due to these reasons, I think if we are going to advance from here, I will like to see a clean break out above 4980.
Until that happens, 4980 remains a key level for me for tomorrow as well. At time of this post, we last traded 4975.
Scenario 1: If we open the cash session below 4980 and remain below it, I expect a retest lower of key levels at 4947-4950. Note that levels are from emini S&P500.
Scenario 2: TLT firmed up a little today. YTD, there have been massive flows here in the US in bond funds. If TLT is able to take out 96 and Emini clears 4980 to the upside, I will be looking for test of recent swing highs at 4997.
META
With SNAP ER today, if there is a weakness in META into 448-450 (it is 455 at the moment), I think this could be supported for a move back above 460. For one, there is a technical gap support at this level. And then I also think if SNAP is coming up with all these vague reasons why they are losing advertisers, then the real reason may be META and GOOG. This is good for META. This is why I think it could be supported as long as these levels hold.
BABA
I shared BABA here a few weeks ago at 70 and now is pushing up again 80. BABA has had a rash of good news from its ex-leadership & founders buying shares to the China's securities regulator saying overnight that it would suspend brokerages from borrowing shares for lending and cap the size of the securities re-lending business, per Reuters. This is in all a part of further efforts to curb short-selling and support the slumped Chinese equity markets. This I think could support BABA to run up to 92 area which has been a resistance in recent months before consolidating and then heading higher.
~ tic
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of Ninja Trader, FinViz, Think or Swim, and/or Yahoo, Google. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors’ IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.