Daily Plan 2.20.25
Hey-
So another good day for the bulls today. While we did not even come close to the 6106 support level from last night, another way to look at this is that we have had a bullish bias. This means we are not looking to short the open. This alone is a big plus even on days like today! Imagine shorting this market every day for last few days! Not a good look.
In other news, PLTR stock which I recently shared at 100 dollars for a move into 120 took a big hit today on Trump suggested/proposed cuts at the pentagon.
I don’t think Palantir bullish story is over but it gets interesting.
Look I am an opportunistic trader. 99% of the times the market price is noise, it is 1% of the times the prices are your window to opportunity. I don’t always have a view but I always have a view at certain price points. In PLTR this price in short term is at 100.
It is 112 at the moment. If we trade 100, I will like to see this supported for a move into 108-110. If I really want a super solid entry longer term into PLTR, I wait. I wait for the general market to crack and PLTR to trade 90-92. I think this could be a great level for next 30-40% on the stock, with a 5-7 month time horizon.
In related markets everyone is waiting with suspense about the NVDA earnings soon next week. Regardless of what NVDA does, keep an eye on Micron. I think this stock may be poised for a move higher into 120s. It is about 104 at the moment.
These March 21 $110 CALLS which are now like 3.5 look interesting and even more interesting if had under 3. If you are a regular reader, you know my sweet spot for most of my options is between 1 and 2 dollars. I don’t mind a 2 dollar option going to 0, if I can have a few of these double or triple but to see a 5-6 dollar option go to 0 stings. This one at 3.5 is a little expensive but if NVDA does well, I think MU also takes off.
BTW, as a gentle reminder NVDA is up some 30 points within a couple of weeks from that support level I shared when it was relentlessly selling off.
You can probably extend this same logic to SMCI as well. I know it is 60-62 now, but if you are hoping for some huge sell off in this near term, don’t get your hopes up too much unless you see us go back below 50 dollars on SMCI. I think if 50 holds, there is more juice to squeeze here.
As far as the levels go for tomorrow, this 6100 weekly level remains sacrosanct for me.
The bears have to take it out, else we are headed into 6200. We are now trading like 6150 on the March, and we are AT 6133 on SPX.
BTW can you believe it is almost March already! These markets have not really gone anywhere for over 4 months. This is a tremendous balancing and the move out of this will be an explosive one. We are talking minimum 10%, may be even a 20% move for those who are patient. Generally speaking, if you are a bear here at 6150, this is obviously not going well here last few days.
So what you need to see other than a daily close or two below 6100? I think if you attempt a breakout above 6200 AND fail, this will be a consolation prize for the bears and keeps them in play. Sort of like you won a Bronze medal at the games.
However if you see 6200 taken out, and then you remain above it on Daily and weeklies, that makes things potentially very tricky here. In that case, your main out is Trump sending some really nasty bearish tweets which while causes sell off the sell off does not stick! This is a market getting cozy with higher inflation in future and the only thing that ends this party are strongly hawkish data that point to a need for further tightening.
Scenario 1: On the Emini side, I will keep an eye out on this 6135-6140 area tomorrow. We have been balancing here now and if this holds, I think we could try and make another swipe at the highs from today near 6160.
Scenario 2: 6106 as well remains a key level tomorrow from the weekly level as potential support if tested. Like as shared earlier even the FOMC could not raise much stink, I did not read much into it, if there is volatility tomorrow, I will like to see 6100s supported for a move back into my edge case at 6140.
These levels can take a lot of time for me to research and publish, if you find value from ideas shared, then don’t be shy to share, like and subscribe. Some of you may have missed out on recent huge moves in SMCI, BABA, INTEL and PLTR in last month alone, but if you read the message of tape and orderflow regularly, an opportunity to get back in may be right around the corner! Don’t miss the next one.
~ toc
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