Daily Plan 2.13.24
Lots of folks got caught off guard today at the highs near 5060 but we warned about a range day for the session.
My calls in MARA, SNAP, Bitcoin turned out to be exceedingly good- with Bitcoin running into 50K finally and then MARA now trading back near $28. I shared these several percentage below (about 30% and MARA has since doubled from my levels).
NVDA high of the day was near that 750 shared by me in the newsletter last night. Very interesting auction in NVDA. This should be ignored.
Levels for tomorrow
CPI day tomorrow. As far as the CPI goes, I think this will be a non event. Most of the CPI is baked in and I do not think it will be hotter than 3%.
The Elephant in the room is the FED commentary recently. Recent comments by Barkin and Susan Collins seem to suggest they are not only interested in seeing lower inflation before rate cuts, they are actually interested in seeing a bout of deflation spread to other markets, like the housing markets.
This appears to me they are now moving the goal post before reducing rates. IF indeed the case, this could become a major new worry for this market. From FED’s perspective this makes sense. Politically they are under pressure as even though the inflation officially is back to 2% now (6 month change), this has not been felt by average Americans before they go to polls in a few months. Housing market remains strong, food, energy and other necessary prices remain very high on a cumulative basis.
However, this will take a few weeks to seep in the markets as more folks realize this.
I think there can be some range bound action now between now and the NVDA earnings on the 21st.
My key level will be 5004.
Scenario 1: I expect dips could be supported on 5004 test for a move back into 5030-5040.
Scenario 2: For a decent trend day, I will like to see some intraday closes below 5000 or above 5040 tomorrow.
At time of this post we last traded 5030.
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