Daily Plan 2.1.24
Traders-
The main expectation was to see sell pressure as long as we remained below 4950, with the 4930 being the key level during the FOMC.
While 4950 never traded in the cash session, 4930 was the exact high of the cash session during the FOMC.
Few key takeaways from the Powell presser-
As expected no rate cuts were confirmed for March. The rate cut bets for March were 60% at some point which went down into lows 30s late in the day.
QT end was not confirmed but I thought there was some eagerness to start it by June.
I think May rate cut is looking very likely.
Levels for tomorrow
We closed down on big volume so this can keep some pressure for a session or so. On top of this I think the FOMC today does create some degree of uncertainty which needs to be resolved by this market if we are going to find a bottom here. Dollar had strong volume and remained above 103. I need to see Dollar give up 102 level before some relief for bulls on the equity side. As expected TLT had a strong close but that may just be due to the NY Community bank failure in expectation of some let off in the QT, if other banks follow suit.
For the session tomorrow, my key level will be 4899.
Scenario 1: As long as we remained below 4899, I expect a retest of the weekly level near 4820-4830.
Scenario 2: If we are able to close the first hour of trading above 4898, we may test 4906-4910 area.
At time of this post we last traded 4870.
~ tt
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