Daily Plan 1.29.25
Hey folks-
Fairly packed day today with all sort of risk events. On top of that you will probably have a clamp down on leverage by brokers and what not causing more moves in the vacuum.
We should see liquidity normalize tomorrow AM.
From our levels today, we saw the exact low in the emini S&P500 and the exact high in overnight session. Some other ideas have done great as well. For instance, AAPL bullish call at 120 turned to be good. It rallied to 140. BABA has almost gone up 20% from my most recent pivot. Moderna up about 30%. FUBO up more than 10%. With this whole Deep Seek thing, a few assumptions have been appended. On who wins who looses. I have been working on a couple of themes which can win big from this, which I will share with the subs on Sunday.
As far as the levels go, I do not like a super formal plan on FOMC days but here are a few price action based thoughts:
This whole 6111 area is where we gapped down on Sunday and no one was really in a rush to buy this gap down. These are some important clues. Bulls need to take this and stay above this level for further gains to come. This is also right now the overnight high.
On the downside, I still see some uncertainty which needs to be ironed out. The simple thinking is that Powell will come in very dovish today because Trump has asked him for rate cuts. This is true at a basic level but you have to understand the nuances here.
Trump is a very hands on guy and he probably understands that the higher risk asset prices are causing some longer rates to stay elevated. I would not put it past him to want some of this fluff to come out of these markets and I would not put it past him to be working with Powell to engineer some of this. Even a 20% sell off in equities from here at 6100-6200 can make a large dent in longer rates and bring them down to 3%.
I would say 5980 could be a tactical level for today which if trades could be a decent level for a run up to 6040. I am not saying it will trade, I am sharing my view what if it trades?
In short term trading, I am looking at this NVDA 120 PUT for FEB MOPEX. I know NVDA has had a nice bounce yesterday. But there are still 3 weeks to go to MOPEX. This PUT is like 2.5 right now and with a little more pump in NVDA could be below 2 between $1.5 and $2. Just has a higher edge given everything else going on right now.
Consider subscribing now for more PUTS and CALLS.
~ toc
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