Daily Plan 1/24/23

Traders-

Last night’s plan called for continuation into 4030 if we opened and remained above 3990 at the cash session open and resistance to come in near 4060.

This was just one of those days where both of these calls came to fruition as we opened at 3990, could not trade below it and proceeded to 4030 within a few hours. Broke 4030 and then as we approached 4060, we sold off about 40 handles within minutes from that level. Overall a good day for OrderFlow traders.

If you recall, this is what I was saying in Wednesday and Thursday plans last week that the sell off did not smell right to me and even though the technicals looked very bearish at 3900, I could not personally buy that weakness and I had expected this could happen - 4060 could trade.

Some of my other higher conviction calls also did quite well today with TSLA almost trading 150 handles. This is about a 40% surge from the lows where I got quite bullish on this name.

Now with 4060 almost traded, longer term, we did not get that close above 4060 today. The challenge for bears has been the dollar. Or rather the dollar weakness.

These correlations are key and I can not ignore them. When you are seeing Gold firmly above 1900, EURUSD above 1.08, this is not helping the bears right now- I do not want to get into the why and how of it but I can see that if we remain bid above 1900 on Gold, this is not been a big help for the bears of late!

Levels for tomorrow

While we got to test that 4060 and got that initial reaction from there that was swift and sold down for 40+ handles, I think this level may still remain in play as long as we do not close back below 4000 on the Daily time frames.

To this end my key level tomorrow will be 4015.

Scenario 1: As long as we open and remain bid above 4015, this level could support a move back into 4060 to retest it. 

Scenario 2: An IB close below 4000-4015 is ideally what the bears want tomorrow. 

Remember with the influx of 0DTE options, the market has been choppier than ever. This impasse will eventually break and the 0DTE will pass as a fade - but until then the max pain remains where there is most premiums to go after and I think that still could be on the put side. This is mostly a dollar weakness story and I think dollar weakness will fade but this could mean a spike higher from what I am seeing currently.

Any updates to this plan may be shared below in the chat room with subscribers.

~ Tic Toc

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