Hey folks-
Hope everyone got some much needed time off with the loved ones over the holidays. Markets should be back in full fervor next Monday but wanted to send out some price action notes, as well as a couple of high probability levels/scenarios.
AMZN
I think AMZN could remain a formidable tech stock going forward. They selling it for a 3 Price to sale. As sort of a low margin company, contrast this with a very niche company like AAPL that sells at 10 PS! These are just some of the mysteries of market when it comes to inefficiencies which make no sense whatsoever! Is AAPL any safer than amazon? I highly doubt it.
Yes, if the market goes south everything will turn south, but AMZN will be one of my TOP mega caps of 2025. It is now 220 dollars. As far as downside goes, I think that 210 could be an important support. I think if we hold 210, we could head higher into $250+. If you are a regular Substack reader, you will know that I shared this near 140 back in 2024. While it is 220 now, I think this is an ultimate growth stock, a tremendous disruptor.
Emini S&P500
On Tuesday, I called a low to be carved at 5916 which was an excellent call but the bounce was shallow about 25 dollars. Looking ahead at next couple of sessions, if you recall the 5865 level on the emini from post FOMC day was traded and then rejected almost instantaneously. This rejection came a little before the cash session opened on that day. I wanna keep an eye out on this level this week, sometime early next week. We are now trading around 5940.
Scenario 1: Normally if the market trades a level pre cash session, and this level gets re-tested subsequently in the cash session, I expect a strong reaction at that level. I wanna buy this level if it trades in the cash session, for a move back above 5900. This level could be a great indicator of future auctions. If we reject the level and close back above 5900, I think we may have seen the swing time frame lows. If we close in the vicinity of the level (10-15 dollars), I think this opens doors to more sell off below 5865.
TSLA
TSLA deliveries should be out in a day or less and the expectation is for the deliveries to come in at 515K. This is indeed a lofty number and I have no idea how TSLA is gonna hit this.
Regardless, I personally think none of this matters though and any weakness in TSLA due to deliveries I think should be supported in short to intermediate time frames.
I think if we dip into 380s, this could be supported. I can’t be bearish on TSLA unless we close below 370. It is about 400 now. Another way to look at this from a short term POV could be, if we linger here around 400 or so, and the 1/17 or 1/24 calls go down to 2-3 dollars (they are like $13 now), with about a ten days or so to go for 1/17 or 2/24 expiry, I like these 425 CALLS.
MSTR
I remain bullish on the likes of Crypto stocks like COIN. It is 245 now. I expect this to retrace back to 350s at some point later.
On MSTR, I like the January 31, $330 CALL if had sub 8 dollars. For February MOPEX (2/21), I think $315 CALL offered at $30 bucks could become attractive if offered around 12 dollars. It is right now offered at 33 dollars.
~ TIC
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