Daily Plan 11.7.23

Traders-

The. primary expectation from this AM was to see balance conditions. I sent an update to my Substack followers below.

This was a good update as we remained precisely between these 2 levels. You can subscribe and then join the below chat room for similar morning updates when the conditions are right. No extra cost for the chat room updates.

Levels for tomorrow

Referring to Chart A below for SPY.

We see low volume, balanced day, most of the auction within the prior session.

In technical context, this could be a sign of weak finish as long as the high of prior day holds.

This is the reason, my key level tomorrow will be highs from today around 4390. At time of this post we last traded 4380.

Scenario 1: As long as the 4390 level holds, I do think we can consolidate a bit more. If we are able to take out 4350 intraday, we could sell down to fill some gaps near 4330 area.

Scenario 2: The bulls I think will need decent horse power tomorrow if they are going to clear 4390 and remain above it on the intraday time frames to target 4426.

At time of this post we last traded around 4380.

Some thoughts on longer term price action. I do think this is a bear market rally, which could still have some more room to run. Reason for my opinion is that while I believe some of the winners like GOOG and META are legit winners based on a mix of valuations and technical strength as well as fundamentals, then you have some really bad actors in crypto space also rallying. Plus some other junk which is quite strong (price wise).

As far as I am concerned, this is a sign that there is excess liquidity in the system which needs to be absorbed and thus causing these rallies. Ideally, as far as I am concerned, a key signal for me for a longer term bottom will be strong leadership by solid fundamental companies. Until I see that, I am not ready to call an ultimate bottom from which we can springboard much higher.

As a reminder, Substack now offers rewards for sharing its publications. The more you share, the more rewards you accumulate and greater the reach of OrderFlow based methodologies.

~ Tic Toc

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