Daily Plan 1.11.24
Hey traders-
I want to kick off the post by sharing some feedback I received. The feedback is due to the wide breadth of topics I share my thoughts on in this blog. It is from day to day action on Emini, to individual stocks to commodities like gold, macro as well as options and crypto. I can see how such wide breadth of topics can confuse some.
Then what makes the matters worst is that I share my thoughts across a wide variety of time frames.
I can very easily split this blog into multiple- each focussed on different categories but it complicates things for me from admin perspective and complicates it even more for the reader. I will see how I can simplify it, please bear with me as I figure it out.
But a few thoughts on time frames.
These daily posts are mostly geared towards day to day action unless stated otherwise. The chat room is really mostly only focussed on intraday, from few minutes to few hours.
Now I do share some views which can run many years. These are usually the weekly or annual posts. I have myself taken steps to prepare and I have shared how I have prepared for next few YEARS. For instance, I have cut down on my RE exposure.
I do own stocks. So any time I share some long term name like ISRG, or a. LULU or recently crypto to name a few, I do own them. But I am also prepared to add more if I get lower prices in near future.
Speaking of good levels, I have my views on what a long term fair value for a TSLA, or NVDA or AMZN etc is and I do not mind waiting for it. This is my personal situation that I can wait for years if I need to, this may or may not be applicable or suitable for everyone out there.
So, to get value out of this publication, you have to first figure out what your time frame really is.
If your time frame is few minutes to a few hours, do you really care about my views far out, a couple of years or more?
If I am one trade a year person, then do I really care about what this market is doing day to day?
I will take AAPL example again. Based on my research, I view long term value of AAPL at 120 for example. Why 120? Because I think if I can get this price at 120, I think in next 10 years, my investment will be fully paid on AAPL earnings and after that I hold AAPL free and clear. Now it is at 200. I personally do not want to be an investor in AAPL at 200.
In same sense, I have not been a bear at all on the recent high flyers. In fact I have been a bull on most of them. NVDA, SMCI, AMD, AMZN, GOOG, AVGO, PLTR. These are just a handful of examples where I have been bullish in last few months. At the same time, I have extremely long term fair value levels on each one of these which I share from time to time when they come in crosshairs.
For instance, TSLA at 100 and 137 was a long term level. AMD at 90 was a long term level. I do not think this should confuse anyone as long as one is cognizant of their own time frames. Most of my posts and views on Substack on SPX are intraday and weekly time frames.
To be 100% clear, I am not saying AAPL is a bad stock or TSLA is bad or really any one of the mega caps. I am just saying based on my personal system, they are out of sync with value.
If you look at SMCI, I reiterated my strong bias on this at 250. The volatility at 250 was not for everyone but it did not stop it from closing near that 350 today!
I subscribe to many analysis services and I personally do not know any service with a wider breadth of topics and depth.
On SPX, the average daily long term range is about 40 dollars. Everything intraday has to be viewed in terms of this 40 point average day. I can not base my 5 year decisions based on a 40 point move.
Let us now dial back to my plan from last night.
I was bullish at close yesterday and the low of the session today was around 4760. I reiterated this at at open. For me to become bearish on SPX intraday, I have to see either 4760 give up or see some sort of bearish tape at 4820.
Now let me also share my views on swing time frame SPX. I follow a very simple trend momentum system where for me to be bearish on SPX longer than a day, I need to see a very specific technical set up. I personally like to see a new 50 day low. Right now the SPX is making new 50 day highs. Based on technical set up alone, what this means is a couple of months of balancing and then a break below the 50 day low. This is exact set up I need to see for intermediate bearish bias. This system can be backtested with good results. Technically, a new 50 day high is not considered bearish by most technical analysis. In fact this is a bullish signal. Have shared this in several of my prior educational posts with subscribers.
Levels for tomorrow
CPI day tomorrow. I really do not like to do a super formal plan on CPI days due to volatility. However, keep in mind what I said about the system above. I would not be forming any longer term bias based on the action tomorrow for the exact reason I described above.
On the intraday time frames, I do think these levels here 4811-4830 are important levels and could play a role tomorrow.
I will probably send out a chat AFTER the open or before it based on overnight action.
However, generally my view is that the bears need to take out this 4792 level else this could prove some support tomorrow.
GCT
Very small cap. My LIS on this will be 19 or so. It is around 21 at the moment. I think if we hold 19 on this, we could see it push higher into 24-25+.
~ toc
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