Daily Plan 1.10.24
Primary expectation was to see buyers emerge at 4760 at the cash open. See below.
This was the case as we sharply rallied from the levels shared last night to close the session right at 4800.
I also sent another update to drop the NVDA PUT idea which turned out to be good.
In other names, we saw another sharp sell off in Crypto miners like MARA at the level I shared over the weekend.
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Levels for tomorrow
Indeed the session today was quite strong. However, I did not like the tape at 4800 towards the closing hour.
For this reason my key level tomorrow will be 4800-4811.
At time of this post we last traded 4800.
Scenario 1: If we are able to take out 4811 in the IB session (first hour of cash open), I do not want to fade it and we could see a test of 4830.
Scenario 2: If the bulls are not able to take out 4811 fairly early on in the session, I will like to see if we test and hold 4770. A break of 4770 could bring some volatility.
Few thoughts on Bitcoin
I was one of the first and may be only bear on Bitcoin at 60000 and then 40000, before it sold down to 15000. Before that, I was a bull on Bitcoin at 3300 along with names like Doge at less than half a cent. So I have been both bullish and bearish on these coins before. Most recently I have been bullish on Bitcoin around 27K level.
Now at 45000-50000, I am not necessarily immediately bearish but I do think that a lot of the current reasons being given for a march higher into 100k may already be priced in. Unless we get the ETF trading this week and then all of a sudden every single investor allocates 5% of their account into these ETFs.
Is it possible? Sure. Why not.
My current view is that Bitcoin could be supported on weakness into 30-35K area. Of-course no one can see the future, but that is my guess. Now if that is considered being bearish, then I am bearish. But I disagree. I am sharing a more thought out level from risk to reward perspective, which may or may never trade. If it does not, then I am sure some other set up and level will be available in near future.
I personally would like to see this whole industry flesh out a bit more. I will like to see highly profitable companies emerge in this area. Who is it now? Is any company making profit hand over fist in crypto world today? Is it the miners? Is it the exchanges? Has any one ever made a cent? Only one who seems to be profitable seems to the exchanges with order flow and other fees. Or the crypto coin promoters. Unless you count NVDA and CME as crypto companies.
These things can take 5-10 years to emerge before companies begin turning a profit. It took almost a decade for the likes of AMZN and TSLA even to turn profitable. And that is when they really took off.
~ tic
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