Daily Plan 10/5/22

Traders-

I was bullish last night at the close near 3700 and I had expected a test of 3740 today in the cash session.

We however hit this goal over night and we opened near this range.

See this plan from last night : Plan

It is at this point, I reiterated that I expected a test of 3800 today. This target got hit early on in the session.

It is here that we started selling off towards 3770 which I sent a Telegram update that I expected to hold for a test back of 3790. This turned out to be quite alright as we shortly not only retested 3790 but actually closed above 3800.

On top of this, we continue to see a lot of folks fight this tape. This action has been going very well with my expectation that we may test that 3950 before all is said and done and we are now about 200 handles off the contract lows. On Nasdaq NQ, the squeeze is even worst than that in the Spooz.

SPY Intraday Auction

My levels for tomorrow

My key level for tomorrow will be 3820/3830.

Scenario 1: I personally think for the auction to have horsepower beyond this point into 3880-3900, we will need to open and close the IB above 3820 tomorrow.

Scenario 2: As long as we remain offered below 3820, or close the IB below 3820 tomorrow, I favor a retest of 3710/3720 OrderFlow level.

I think sentiment wise the market is still bearish, however IMHO it has also come up quite a bit very rapidly and I do not mind if it were to cool down a little bit back down into 3700 and see if the buyers step in there again or not.

At time of this post we last traded around 3810.

On the news front, we have the ISM services PMI which if comes in hotter than expected may cause some softness and volatility.

Some of my other ideas shared today did very well.

• For instance, we had a 15% day in Rivian today.

• We rallied about 5% in MU stock.

• We also saw good action in my intraday TSLA levels, especially that 245 level.

• UNH has been having an excellent couple of sessions.

With MU specifically, a lot of folks I think assumed their investment in the US is a bullish news. It may be. However, I thought in the short term, it did not bode well from so many different angles.

These semiconductor plants are a very different beast than let us say an automotive plant. It can take 3-4 years or even more to build a semiconductor plant as the specifications need to be extremely tight around the manufacturing processes.

We will see how it goes, however I think INTC already has a lot of manufacturing here in the US. These are some of the reasons shared by me weeks earlier why I like INTC a lot in this sector.

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~ Tic

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